Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 5

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday


	Mid Canterbury		South Canterbury

	1	X	2
	1.8	23	2.1
	1.78	23	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.78)	23 (23)	2.08 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mid Canterbury
51.5%

Draw
4%

South Canterbury
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mid Canterbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

South Canterbury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 26)
2nd Half (17 - 19)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mid Cant won 2.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Mid Cant will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Mid Cant won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 110:199. (average 13.8:24.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mid Cant won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 48:85. (average 16:28.3).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
1	Mid Cant	8	6	0	2	305:214	33
5	South Cant	8	5	0	3	391:253	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mid Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
04.09.26	Mid Canterbury - Buller	43:35
28.08.26	East Coast - Mid Canterbury	17:57
21.08.26	Mid Canterbury - Wairarapa Bush	29:19 ✺
14.08.26	North Otago - Mid Canterbury	37:26 ✺
17.10.25	Mid Canterbury - Thames Valley	21:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWWLW
- South Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
04.09.26	King Country - South Canterbury	55:22 ✺
28.08.26	South Canterbury - Buller	73:10
21.08.26	South Canterbury - West Coast	85:10
14.08.26	East Coast - South Canterbury	20:44
10.10.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	31:61 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
12.09.25	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	0:13
11.10.24	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	16:17
30.08.24	Mid Canterbury - South Canterbury	19:41
29.10.21	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	43:22
13.09.19	Mid Canterbury - South Canterbury	13:13
21.09.18	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	41:10
08.09.17	Mid Canterbury - South Canterbury	16:31

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