Match Info

Heartland Championships - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday


	South Canterbury		Thames Valley

	1	X	2
	1.5	28	2.5
	1.54	28	2.51
	1.54	28	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.52)	28 (28)	2.51 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 64.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Canterbury
60.1%

Draw
3.3%

Thames Valley
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

3.3%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

3.3%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Canterbury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Thames Valley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Canterbury than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thames Valley than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

South Canterbury - Thames Valley Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): South Canterbury will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:29

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Cant won 2.

In recent matches, South Cant has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Thames Valley is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

South Cant will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that South Cant will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, South Cant won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 200:136. (average 33.3:22.7).

Including home matches between the teams, South Cant won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 114:92. (average 28.5:23).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
03.10.25	South Canterbury - Horowhenua-Kapiti	31:21 ✺
26.09.25	North Otago - South Canterbury	32:29 ✺
19.09.25	Poverty Bay - South Canterbury	41:35 ✺
12.09.25	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	0:13 ✺
05.09.25	South Canterbury - Whanganui	35:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLLW
- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
03.10.25	Whanganui - Thames Valley	5:38 ✺
26.09.25	Thames Valley - West Coast	45:7 ✺
19.09.25	Thames Valley - East Coast	84:5 ✺
12.09.25	Buller - Thames Valley	5:40 ✺
05.09.25	North Otago - Thames Valley	45:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
22.08.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	34:35
13.11.21	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	35:16
04.10.19	Thames Valley - South Canterbury	28:24
26.10.18	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	12:17
12.10.18	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	33:24
23.09.16	Thames Valley - South Canterbury	16:62

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