Match Info

FRANCE: Pro D2 - Round 22

Date: 27 February 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 1, CANAL+ Sport


	Montauban		Provence Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.47	24	2.65
	1.45	35	2.85	Watch
	1.53	23	2.5
	1.41	26	3.02
	1.47	24	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.52)	25.5 ↑ (19.5)	2.7 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montauban
62.2%

Draw
3.6%

Provence Rugby
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

4.7%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

4.6%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montauban has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Provence Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montauban than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Montauban - Provence Rugby Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:23

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (22 - 13)
4', Plisson J. (Penalty Goal),
6', Bosviel J. (Penalty Goal),
9', Bosviel J. (Penalty Goal),
13', Bosviel J. (Penalty Goal),
26', Bosviel J. (Penalty Goal),
29', Plisson J. (Penalty Goal),
32', Bosviel J. (Penalty Goal),
35', Harrison T. 🟥,
38', Vici J. (Try),
39', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
40+4', Pifeleti K. (Try),
40+6', Gopperth J. A. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 15)
57', Plisson J. (Penalty Goal),
62', Vici J. (Try),
63', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),
64', North G. (Try),
68', Soulan J. (Try),
70', Soulan J. (Missed Drop Goal),
76', Mallez P. 🟥,
79', Bitz C. (Try),
80+1', Bosviel J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montauban won 2.

Montauban in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Provence Rugby is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Montauban will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Montauban to win the game is with odds 1.49.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Montauban won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 271:364 (average 18.1:24.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Montauban won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 141:96 (average 20.1:13.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Montauban
French Pro D2
21.02.25	Nissa - Montauban	7:15 ✺
14.02.25	Montauban - Nevers	60:23 ✺
07.02.25	Montauban - Agen	36:14 ✺
24.01.25	Mont-De-Marsan - Montauban	21:33 ✺
17.01.25	Montauban - Valence Romans Drôme	25:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWWWW
- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
21.02.25	Provence Rugby - SA XV Charente	61:45 ✺
13.02.25	Mont-De-Marsan - Provence Rugby	37:44 ✺
07.02.25	Provence Rugby - Nevers	38:21 ✺
24.01.25	Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby	26:17 ✺
17.01.25	Provence Rugby - FC Grenoble	24:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
13.09.24	Provence Rugby - Montauban	30:26
05.04.24	Provence Rugby - Montauban	29:12
13.10.23	Montauban - Provence Rugby	25:10
13.01.23	Montauban - Provence Rugby	20:16
28.10.22	Provence Rugby - Montauban	20:11
11.02.22	Montauban - Provence Rugby	18:22
26.11.21	Provence Rugby - Montauban	37:15

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