Match Info

ENGLAND: PREMIERSHIP RUGBY - ROUND 19

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Kingston Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Ridley C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Canada	Sportsnet


	Newcastle Red Bulls		London Irish

	1	X	2
	2.2	21	1.73
	2.12	23	1.76
	2.27	22	1.68
	2.25	19	1.67
	2.22	26	1.71	Watch
	2.25	22	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.74)	22.17 ↑ (19.5)	1.7 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Newcastle Red Bulls
41.6%

Draw
4.2%

London Irish
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

4.7%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

4.9%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Red Bulls has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newcastle Red Bulls's form might have worsened.

London Irish has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting London Irish's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Red Bulls than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle Red Bulls, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for London Irish than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for London Irish, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

Newcastle Red Bulls - London Irish Predictions

Users Predictions: Newcastle Red Bulls will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:27

#ad

Preview

The neighbours in a tournament table will play in a very interesting match (ranked 10 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newcastle Falcons won 1.

Recent matches Newcastle Falcons is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

London Irish is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Newcastle Falcons won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 327-367.

Including matches at home between the teams Newcastle Falcons won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 168-144.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Red Bulls
English Premiership Rugby
25.02.23	Saracens - Newcastle Red Bulls	29:23 ✺
17.02.23	Bristol Rugby - Newcastle Red Bulls	30:12 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
21.01.23	Newcastle Red Bulls - Connacht	35:21 ✺
15.01.23	Cardiff Rugby - Newcastle Red Bulls	42:10 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
07.01.23	Newcastle Red Bulls - Leicester Tigers	45:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWLW
- London Irish
English Premiership Rugby
25.02.23	London Irish - Leicester Tigers	22:25 ✺
18.02.23	Bath - London Irish	10:25 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
10.02.23	London Irish - Northampton Saints	30:18 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
29.01.23	London Irish - Harlequins	42:24 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
22.01.23	Montpellier - London Irish	21:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
03.12.22	London Irish - Newcastle Red Bulls	39:17
22.04.22	Newcastle Red Bulls - London Irish	14:42
04.12.21	London Irish - Newcastle Red Bulls	43:21
08.05.21	Newcastle Red Bulls - London Irish	52:27
31.01.21	London Irish - Newcastle Red Bulls	31:22
30.12.17	London Irish - Newcastle Red Bulls	15:20
29.09.17	Newcastle Red Bulls - London Irish	29:17

Upcoming Matches