Match Info

EUROPE: CHALLENGE CUP - ROUND 4

Date: 21 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Kingston Park (Newcastle)


	Newcastle Red Bulls		Connacht

	1	X	2
	1.95	19	1.95
	1.98	23	1.86
	1.95	20	1.94
	1.91	17	1.95
	1.94	25	1.92
	1.93	20	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.13)	20.67 ↑ (19.4)	1.92 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: (0)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Red Bulls
47.5%

Draw
4.5%

Connacht
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

4.7%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

4.6%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Red Bulls has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Connacht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Red Bulls than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle Red Bulls that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Connacht than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Connacht could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Newcastle Red Bulls - Connacht Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Connacht will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:24

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Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Newcastle Falcons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 47-52.

Including matches at home between the teams Newcastle Falcons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 29-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Red Bulls
Challenge Cup Rugby
15.01.23	Cardiff Rugby - Newcastle Red Bulls	42:10 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
07.01.23	Newcastle Red Bulls - Leicester Tigers	45:26 ✺
31.12.22	Bath - Newcastle Red Bulls	24:16 ✺
23.12.22	Newcastle Red Bulls - Sale Sharks	20:14 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.12.22	Newcastle Red Bulls - Cardiff Rugby	10:47 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLWL
- Connacht Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.01.23	Connacht - Brive	61:5 ✺
United Rugby Championship
07.01.23	Connacht - Sharks	24:12 ✺
01.01.23	Leinster - Connacht	41:12 ✺
23.12.22	Connacht - Ulster	20:22 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
16.12.22	Brive - Connacht	24:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
10.12.22	Connacht - Newcastle Red Bulls	22:8
20.12.15	Newcastle Red Bulls - Connacht	29:5
11.12.15	Connacht - Newcastle Red Bulls	25:10

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