Match Info

WORLD: United Rugby Championship - Round 4

Date: 13 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Sport, BBC Two, Premier Sports Player, TNT Sports 2, URC


	Newport Gwent Dragons		Lions

	1	X	2
	3.4	26	1.33
	3.3	23	1.33
	3.3	24	1.35
	3.45	25.76	1.35	Watch
	3.75	23	1.29
	3.59	23	1.34
	3.3	24	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↓ (3.73)	24.11 ↑ (22.83)	1.33 ↑ (1.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport Gwent Dragons
26.9%

Draw
3.8%

Lions
69.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

71.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Newport Gwent Dragons - Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Lions will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Manzano R. M.	1. Schoeman J.
2. Coghlan B.	2. Marais F.
3. Brown L.	3. Ntlabakanye A.
4. Carter B.	4. Nothnagel R.
5. Screech M.	5. Landsberg D.
6. Lewis-Hughes S.	6. Pretorius J.
7. Keddie H.	7. Cairns J.
8. Basham T.	8. Horn F.
9. Williams R.	9. van den Berg M.
10. Lloyd Arthur E.	10. Steyn N.
11. Rosser J.	11. van der Merwe E.
12. Owen A.	12. Jonker R.
13. Westwood J.	13. Cronje E.
14. Dyer R.	14. Maxwane R.
15. O'Brien A.	15. Horn Q.
Substitutes
16. Burrows O.	16. Botha P.
17. Jones C.	17. Pohlmann H.
18. Coleman C.	18. van Vuuren C.
19. Woodman R.	19. Schoeman R.
20. Lydiate D.	20. Du Plessis R.
21. Blacker D.	21. Nohamba S.
22. Reed W.	22. Louw M.
23. Rosser E.	23. van Wyk H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 13)
10', Horn Q. (Try),
11', Steyn N. (Conversion Goal),
14', Keddie H. (Try),
15', Lloyd Arthur E. (Conversion Goal),
23', Marais F. 🟨,
24', Basham T. (Try),
28', Steyn N. (Penalty Goal),
40+1', Steyn N. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 10)
42', Basham T. (Try),
43', Lloyd Arthur E. (Conversion Goal),
49', Nohamba S. (Penalty Goal),
51', Cairns J. (Try),
52', Nohamba S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Lions is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Lions have a series of home games.

In this match Lions is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dragons won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 116:164 (average 23.2:32.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Dragons won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 36:51 (average 18:25.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
05.10.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Sharks	30:33 ✺
27.09.24	Leinster - Newport Gwent Dragons	34:6 ✺
21.09.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	23:21 ✺
01.06.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:15 ✺
18.05.24	Ospreys - Newport Gwent Dragons	26:13 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLWLL
- Lions Rugby
United Rugby Championship
05.10.24	Lions - Edinburgh	55:21 ✺
28.09.24	Lions - Ulster	35:22 ✺
Currie Cup
21.09.24	Lions - Sharks	14:16 ✺
14.09.24	Lions - Cheetahs	43:34 ✺
06.09.24	Lions - Griffons	62:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
02.12.23	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	49:24
Challenge Cup Rugby
22.01.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lions	25:30
10.12.22	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	31:31
United Rugby Championship
27.11.22	Lions - Newport Gwent Dragons	33:25
21.05.22	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lions	11:21

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