Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 1

Date: 15 August 2025, Friday


	Thames Valley		Mid Canterbury

	1	X	2
	1.6	24	2.35
	1.76	23	2.08
	1.63	24	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.46)	23.67 ↓ (26)	2.25 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thames Valley
55.3%

Draw
3.9%

Mid Canterbury
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

3.5%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thames Valley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thames Valley's form might have worsened.

Mid Canterbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mid Canterbury's recent form is better than expected.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (29 - 26)
2nd Half (5 - 24)

Preview

Thames Valley could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thames Valley won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 158:144. (average 31.6:28.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Thames Valley won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 105:89. (average 35:29.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
18.10.24	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	37:29 ✺
11.10.24	Whanganui - Thames Valley	15:38 ✺
04.10.24	Thames Valley - Horowhenua-Kapiti	35:41 ✺
27.09.24	Poverty Bay - Thames Valley	17:71
20.09.24	Thames Valley - Buller	84:14
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLWW
- Mid Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
18.10.24	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	37:29 ✺
11.10.24	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	16:17 ✺
04.10.24	Mid Canterbury - Poverty Bay	47:24
27.09.24	Buller - Mid Canterbury	14:59
20.09.24	North Otago - Mid Canterbury	21:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 56.9 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
18.10.24	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	37:29
15.10.21	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	52:35
27.09.19	Mid Canterbury - Thames Valley	17:31
29.09.17	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	16:25
07.10.16	Mid Canterbury - Thames Valley	38:22

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