Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Whanganui		Thames Valley

	1	X	2
	1.55	26	2.45
	1.61	25	2.36
	1.55	26	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.56)	25.67 ↓ (26)	2.42 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Whanganui
58.5%

Draw
3.6%

Thames Valley
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

3.5%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

3.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Whanganui has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Thames Valley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Whanganui than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thames Valley than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Whanganui - Thames Valley Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Thames Valley (votes: 1 - 100%).

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 24)
2nd Half (0 - 14)

Preview

Whanganui has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Thames Valley is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Whanganui might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Whanganui will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Whanganui won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:52. (average 15.5:26).

Including home match between the teams, Whanganui won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:38.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Whanganui Rugby
Heartland Championships
26.09.25	King Country - Whanganui	24:29 ✺
19.09.25	Whanganui - Horowhenua-Kapiti	27:21 ✺
12.09.25	East Coast - Whanganui	19:64 ✺
05.09.25	South Canterbury - Whanganui	35:24 ✺
29.08.25	Whanganui - West Coast	19:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWWLL
- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
26.09.25	Thames Valley - West Coast	45:7 ✺
19.09.25	Thames Valley - East Coast	84:5 ✺
12.09.25	Buller - Thames Valley	5:40 ✺
05.09.25	North Otago - Thames Valley	45:36 ✺
29.08.25	Thames Valley - King Country	24:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
11.10.24	Whanganui - Thames Valley	15:38
06.09.24	Thames Valley - Whanganui	14:16

Upcoming Matches