Match Info

WORLD: United Rugby Championship - Round 6

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Ospreys		Edinburgh

	1	X	2
	1.95	21	1.95
	2	21	1.8
	2	20	1.88
	2.02	21.47	1.89	Watch
	2	23	1.83
	2	17	1.83
	2	20	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (3.1)	20.5 ↓ (21.7)	1.87 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
46.1%

Draw
4.5%

Edinburgh
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

4.3%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

4.8%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ospreys's performance.

Edinburgh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Edinburgh might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ospreys that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Edinburgh than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Edinburgh could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Ospreys - Edinburgh Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ospreys will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Edinburgh will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thomas G.	1. Venter B.
2. Lake D.	2. Ashman E.
3. Warren B.	3. Rae D.
4. Greatbanks W.	4. Sykes M.
5. Beard A.	5. Hodgson J.
6. Morgan J.	6. Ritchie J.
7. Tipuric J.	7. Watson H.
8. Morris M.	8. Muncaster B.
9. Morgan-Williams R.	9. Vellacott B.
10. Williams O.	10. Thompson R.
11. Giles K.	11. van der Merwe D.
12. Williams K.	12. Scott M.
13. Watkin O.	13. Currie M.
14. Kasende D.	14. Goosen W.
15. Walsh J.	15. Paterson H.
Substitutes
16. Parry S.	16. Cherry D.
17. Phillips G.	17. Williams A.
18. Botha T.	18. Hill P.
19. Jones L.	19. Young G.
20. Lloyd L.	20. Crosbie L.
21. Hardy K.	21. Shiel C.
22. Florence T.	22. Healy B.
23. Hopkins I.	23. Tuipulotu M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 10)
3', Lake D. (Try),
5', Williams O. (Conversion Goal),
16', Thompson R. (Penalty Goal),
23', Vellacott B. (Try),
23', Thompson R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (15 - 3)
41', Morgan-Williams R. 🟨,
47', Ritchie J. 🟨,
52', Thomas G. (Try),
60', Williams O. (Penalty Goal),
66', Thompson R. (Penalty Goal),
74', Parry S. (Try),
75', Williams O. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ospreys won 3.

Ospreys is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Edinburgh is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ospreys could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Ospreys won 9 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 375:315 (average 23.4:19.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Ospreys won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 228:97 (average 32.6:13.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
18.10.24	Ulster - Ospreys	36:12 ✺
12.10.24	Ospreys - Blue Bulls	19:29 ✺
05.10.24	Munster - Ospreys	23:0 ✺
28.09.24	Ospreys - Stormers	37:24 ✺
21.09.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	23:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWL
- Edinburgh Rugby
United Rugby Championship
19.10.24	Edinburgh - Cardiff Rugby	27:8 ✺
12.10.24	Edinburgh - Stormers	38:7 ✺
05.10.24	Lions - Edinburgh	55:21 ✺
28.09.24	Blue Bulls - Edinburgh	22:16 ✺
20.09.24	Edinburgh - Leinster	31:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
01.03.24	Edinburgh - Ospreys	19:15
15.04.23	Edinburgh - Ospreys	45:21
29.01.22	Ospreys - Edinburgh	23:19
03.10.20	Edinburgh - Ospreys	10:25
31.08.18	Ospreys - Edinburgh	17:13
04.11.17	Edinburgh - Ospreys	37:10
03.03.17	Edinburgh - Ospreys	9:13

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