Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 7
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, S4C Clic, S4C Digital
International	EPCR Rugby TV


	Ospreys		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.36	26	3
	1.47	23	2.9
	1.37	28	3.15
	1.44	23	2.8
	1.45	19	2.91
	1.47	23	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.38)	23.29 ↑ (21.25)	2.93 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
64.6%

Draw
4%

Lyon
31.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.2%

4.4%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.2%

4.2%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ospreys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ospreys - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Ospreys will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thomas G.	1. de Benedittis W.
2. Lake D.	2. Matavesi S.
3. Botha T.	3. Kaabeche H.
4. Davies R.	4. Lambey F. (C)
5. Beard A.	5. Roussel A.
6. Morgan J. (C)	6. Blanc-Mappaz S.
7. Tipuric J.	7. Shvangiradze B.
8. Morris M.	8. Gouzou M.
9. Hardy K.	9. Cassang C.
10. Edwards D.	10. Berdeu L.
11. Giles K.	11. Dumortier E.
12. Williams K.	12. Millet T.
13. Boshoff E.	13. Maraku J.
14. Kasende D.	14. Rattez V.
15. Walsh J.	15. Tchaptchet A.
Substitutes
16. McGuigan G.	16. Marchand G.
17. Phillips G.	17. Taofifenua S.
18. Warren B.	18. Simutoga V.
19. Fender J.	19. Guillard M.
20. Morse M.	20. William T.
21. Morgan-Williams R.	21. Cretin D.
22. Williams O.	22. Couilloud B.
23. Hopkins I.	23. Parisien A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 13)
7', Rattez V. (Try),
8', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
20', Edwards D. (Penalty Goal),
23', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
26', Morgan J. (Try),
27', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
35', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (8 - 7)
51', Guillard M. (Try),
52', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
55', Edwards D. (Penalty Goal),
71', McGuigan G. (Try),

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Ospreys is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ospreys to win the game is with odds 1.45.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ospreys won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 78:20 (average 39:10).

Including matches at home between the teams Ospreys won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 47:7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.25	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	36:14 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	38:22 ✺
22.03.25	Ospreys - Connacht	43:40 ✺
01.03.25	Glasgow Warriors - Ospreys	31:32 ✺
14.02.25	Ospreys - Leinster	19:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WLWWL
- Lyon OU
Challenge Cup Rugby
06.04.25	Lyon - Sharks	34:21 ✺
French Top 14
29.03.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Lyon	28:14 ✺
22.03.25	Lyon - Vannes	36:21 ✺
01.03.25	Lyon - Toulon	27:20 ✺
22.02.25	Castres - Lyon	30:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
15.01.17	Ospreys - Lyon	47:7
22.10.16	Lyon - Ospreys	13:31

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