Match Info

WORLD: United Rugby Championship - Round 11

Date: 14 February 2025, Friday

Location: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, BBC Two, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Ospreys		Leinster

	1	X	2
	4.33	26	1.22
	4.2	25	1.22
	4.5	25.32	1.24	Watch
	4.5	29	1.2
	4.56	21	1.21
	4.2	25	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↓ (6.02)	25.22 ↓ (30.18)	1.22 ↑ (1.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
21%

Draw
3.6%

Leinster
75.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.3%

81.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ospreys's performance.

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leinster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Ospreys - Leinster Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:29

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Phillips G.	1. Boyle J.
2. Parry S.	2. McCarthy G.
3. Botha T.	3. Slimani R.
4. Ratti J.	4. Mangan D.
5. Fender J.	5. Deeny B.
6. Deaves-Small H.	6. Deegan M.
7. Tipuric J.	7. Penny S.
8. Morris M.	8. Culhane J.
9. Morgan-Williams R.	9. McGrath L.
10. Williams O.	10. Frawley C.
11. Giles K.	11. O'Brien J.
12. Williams K.	12. Tector C.
13. Boshoff E.	13. Cooney H.
14. Kasende D.	14. O'Brien T.
15. Walsh J.	15. Osborne J.
Substitutes
16. Lewis E.	16. McKee J.
17. Jones C.	17. McCarthy P.
18. Warren B.	18. McGuire R.
19. Spencer W.	19. Snyman R.
20. Morse M.	20. Soroka A.
21. Hardy K.	21. Gunne F.
22. Florence T.	22. Byrne R.
23. Hopkins I.	23. Osborne A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 15)
13', McGrath L. (Try),
17', Frawley C. (Penalty Goal),
36', Deaves-Small H. (Try),
37', Williams O. (Conversion Goal),
39', Tector C. (Try),
40', Frawley C. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 7)
48', Lewis E. (Try),
65', Slimani R. (Try),
66', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
74', Jones C. (Try),
74', Walsh J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ospreys won 1.

Both teams in the last matches got series of victories.

In this match Leinster is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Ospreys won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 15 matches and goals 296:562 (average 14.8:28.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Ospreys won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 141:178 (average 15.7:19.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
24.01.25	Ospreys - Benetton Treviso	43:0 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.25	Section Paloise - Ospreys	28:31 ✺
11.01.25	Ospreys - Newcastle Red Bulls	35:15 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.25	Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys	13:13 ✺
21.12.24	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	23:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWWTW
- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
25.01.25	Leinster - Stormers	36:12 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
18.01.25	Leinster - Bath	47:21 ✺
12.01.25	La Rochelle - Leinster	14:16 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.12.24	Munster - Leinster	7:28 ✺
21.12.24	Leinster - Connacht	20:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
11.05.24	Leinster - Ospreys	61:14
07.01.23	Ospreys - Leinster	19:24
19.02.22	Leinster - Ospreys	29:7
19.03.21	Leinster - Ospreys	19:24
08.11.20	Ospreys - Leinster	7:26
21.02.20	Ospreys - Leinster	13:21
04.10.19	Leinster - Ospreys	53:5

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