Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, S4C
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Ospreys		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.59	23	2.4
	5.99	14.30	1.18	Watch
	1.62	21	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (1.68)	19.83 ↓ (21)	2.12 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
41.5%

Draw
5.6%

Montpellier
52.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

4.4%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

4.7%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ospreys's form might have worsened.

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (+16.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ospreys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ospreys - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Ospreys will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thomas S.	1. Welsch V.
2. Lloyd L.	2. Uelese J.
3. Henry R.	3. Tolofua C.
4. Davies R.	4. Tauleigne M.
5. Fender J.	5. Uhila M.
6. de Witt M.	6. Becognee A.
7. Evans G.	7. Masibaka A.
8. Morris M.	8. Gleeson L.
9. Morgan-Williams R.	9. Bernadet A.
10. Walsh J.	10. Hogg S.
11. Conbeer R.	11. Rates M.
12. Cokanasiga P.	12. Cadot A.
13. Watkin O.	13. Darmon T.
14. Kasende D.	14. Ducros J.
15. Nagy M.	15. Taofifenua D.
Substitutes
16. Daniel E.	16. Akrab L.
17. Jones C.	17. Erdocio B.
18. Hire K.	18. Hounkpatin W.
19. Jones L.	19. Duguid T.
20. Moriarty R.	20. Shand S.
21. Morse M.	21. Baraer T.
22. Hardy K.	22. Coly L.
23. Hopkins I.	23. Tangata M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 21)
7', Masibaka A. (Try),
7', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
12', Watkin O. (Try),
13', Walsh J. (Conversion Goal),
22', Ducros J. (Try),
23', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
36', Masibaka A. (Try),
37', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
40+1', Lloyd L. (Try),
40+2', Walsh J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 10)
53', Lloyd L. (Try),
54', Walsh J. (Conversion Goal),
59', Moriarty R. (Try),
67', Hounkpatin W. (Try),
68', Hogg S. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Coly L. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Ospreys has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Montpellier is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Montpellier may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Montpellier has had a series of home games.

Ospreys is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Ospreys will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 76:136. (average 19:34).

Including home match between the teams, Ospreys won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 35:29.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.26	Zebre - Ospreys	23:19 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	19:26 ✺
20.12.25	Ospreys - Munster	10:26 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Montauban - Ospreys	22:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWWLW
- Montpellier Hérault RC
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.26	Montpellier - Connacht	33:31 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Montpellier - Aviron Bayonnais	62:22 ✺
28.12.25	Section Paloise - Montpellier	35:33 ✺
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.12.25	Montpellier - Zebre	31:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.24	Montpellier - Ospreys	59:15
17.12.23	Montpellier - Ospreys	38:5
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.01.23	Ospreys - Montpellier	35:29
17.12.22	Montpellier - Ospreys	10:21

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