Match Info

NPC - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Forsyth Barr Stadium (Dunedin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport


	Otago		Hawkes Bay

	1	X	2
	1.47	26	2.7
	1.44	23	2.63	Watch
	1.44	24	2.55
	1.45	21	2.83
	1.48	27	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.83)	24.2 ↑ (20)	2.69 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 62.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Otago
62.5%

Draw
3.8%

Hawkes Bay
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

4.6%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

4.6%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Otago has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Otago's performance.

Hawkes Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hawkes Bay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Otago than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Otago that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawkes Bay than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hawkes Bay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Otago - Hawkes Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:28

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Otago won 1.

Otago has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Hawkes Bay is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Hawkes Bay may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Otago holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Otago in today's match, at odds of 1.48.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Otago has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 363:464 (averaging 22.7:29 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Otago against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 158:206 goals (averaging 19.8:25.8 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Otago
New Zealand NPC
01.10.26	Otago - Auckland	45:42 ✺
26.09.26	North Harbour - Otago	32:21 ✺
17.09.26	Counties Manukau - Otago	21:50 ✺
11.09.26	Otago - Tasman	55:33 ✺
04.09.26	Hawkes Bay - Otago	35:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWWL
- Hawkes Bay
New Zealand NPC
03.10.26	Counties Manukau - Hawkes Bay	12:7 ✺
27.09.26	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	14:50 ✺
18.09.26	Bay of Plenty - Hawkes Bay	32:17 ✺
12.09.26	Hawkes Bay - North Harbour	24:31 ✺
04.09.26	Hawkes Bay - Otago	35:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
04.09.26	Hawkes Bay - Otago	35:24
10.08.25	Otago - Hawkes Bay	21:27
19.08.23	Hawkes Bay - Otago	33:32
17.08.22	Otago - Hawkes Bay	18:13
14.08.21	Hawkes Bay - Otago	34:10
03.10.20	Otago - Hawkes Bay	9:28
18.10.19	Hawkes Bay - Otago	44:39 OT

Otago - Hawkes Bay: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide