Match Info

FRANCE: Top 14 - Round 22

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday


	Oyonnax Rugby		Castres

	1	X	2
	2.3	21	1.67
	2.4	21	1.57
	2.6	18	1.56
	2.45	21	1.57
	2.42	17	1.59
	2.36	23	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.67)	20.17 ↑ (15)	1.6 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oyonnax Rugby
37.9%

Draw
4.6%

Castres
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

6.3%

57.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oyonnax Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Castres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oyonnax Rugby than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Oyonnax Rugby - Castres Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Abraham A.	1. Tichit A.
2. Geledan B.	2. Zarantonello L.
3. Vaotoa C.	3. Chilachava L.
4. Battye P.	4. Nakarawa L.
5. Fabregue H.	5. Vanverberghe F.
6. Lebreton K.	6. Babillot M.
7. Grice R.	7. Delaporte B.
8. Godener L.	8. Peysson Y.
9. Lobzhanidze V.	9. Fernandez J.
10. Miotti D.	10. Le Brun L.
11. Reybier E.	11. Nakosi F.
12. Mensa L.	12. Cocagi A.
13. Farrell C.	13. Seguret A.
14. Stark G.	14. Hulleu N.
15. Bouraux J.	15. Dumora J.
Substitutes
16. Ratajczak J.	16. Colonna P.
17. Raynaud T.	17. Walcker Q.
18. Johnson E.	18. Pieterse R.
19. Lebas V.	19. Papalii A.
20. Ruru J.	20. Arata S.
21. Millet T.	21. Botitu V.
22. Salles M.	22. Raisuqe J.
23. Berthaud T.	23. Thomas H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 13)
18', Nakosi F. (Try),
24', Geledan B. 🟨,
33', Dumora J. (Penalty Goal),
35', Dumora J. (Try),
39', Ruru J. (Try),
40', Miotti D. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (15 - 6)
43', Le Brun L. (Penalty Goal),
48', Dumora J. (Penalty Goal),
49', Chilachava L. 🟥,
50', Stark G. (Try),
50', Miotti D. (Conversion Goal),
53', Godener L. (Try),
70', Miotti D. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation ~ Pro D2 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oyonnax won 0.

Oyonnax has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Castres is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Castres will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Oyonnax won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 155-251.

Including matches at home between the teams Oyonnax won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 81-79.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oyonnax Rugby
French Top 14
20.04.24	Oyonnax Rugby - Racing Métro	13:43 ✺
30.03.24	La Rochelle - Oyonnax Rugby	40:21 ✺
23.03.24	Oyonnax Rugby - Perpignan	14:15 ✺
09.03.24	Clermont - Oyonnax Rugby	15:15 ✺
02.03.24	Oyonnax Rugby - Montpellier	35:39 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LLLTL
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
20.04.24	Castres - La Rochelle	25:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.24	Gloucester - Castres	30:25 ✺
French Top 14
30.03.24	Perpignan - Castres	43:12 ✺
23.03.24	Castres - Racing Métro	21:23 ✺
09.03.24	Lyon - Castres	34:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
11.11.23	Castres - Oyonnax Rugby	39:11
05.05.18	Castres - Oyonnax Rugby	54:3
04.11.17	Oyonnax Rugby - Castres	19:32
28.05.16	Oyonnax Rugby - Castres	20:25
11.09.15	Castres - Oyonnax Rugby	35:26
21.02.15	Oyonnax Rugby - Castres	23:13
20.09.14	Castres - Oyonnax Rugby	27:18

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