What is the expert prediction for Perpignan vs Section Paloise?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Perpignan vs Section Paloise. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Perpignan vs Section Paloise Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, February 22, 2026)

Match Info

Top 14 - Round 17

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Aimé Giral (Perpignan)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport


	Perpignan		Section Paloise

	1	X	2
	1.8	19	2.1
	1.67	23	2.1
	1.79	21	2.07
	1.87	20.48	2.08	Watch
	1.8	19	2.1
	1.8	15	2.1
	1.76	26	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.81)	20.5 ↑ (16.52)	2.09 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perpignan
51.6%

Draw
4.5%

Section Paloise
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

5.7%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

5.7%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perpignan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Section Paloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perpignan than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 46.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 45.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Perpignan will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tetrashvili G.	1. Kaulashvili L.
2. Malolo S.	2. Montoya J.
3. Ceccarelli P.	3. Laclayat T.
4. Chinarro B.	4. Jolmes T.
5. Tanguy M.	5. Maximin J.
6. Diaby M.	6. Zegueur S.
7. Hicks M.	7. Credoz L.
8. Yato P.	8. Gorgadze B.
9. Ecochard T.	9. Robson D.
10. Urdapilleta B.	10. Desperes A.
11. Forner T.	11. Luc A.
12. De La Fuente J.	12. Valentino Q.
13. Duguivalu A.	13. Decron N.
14. Joseph J.	14. Grandidier-Nkanang A.
15. Tedder T.	15. Maddocks J.
Substitutes
16. Lotrian M.	16. Delhommel Y.
17. Devaux B.	17. Etchebehere A.
18. Tuilagi P.	18. Auradou H.
19. Van Tonder J.	19. Whitelock L.
20. Hall J.	20. Hewat R.
21. Reus H.	21. Souverbie T.
22. Buliruarua E.	22. Arfeuil G.
23. Brookes K.	23. Zabala J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (30 - 17)
4', Duguivalu A. (Try),
5', Urdapilleta B. (Conversion Goal),
7', Montoya J. (Try),
8', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
11', Tanguy M. (Try),
18', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
20', Joseph J. (Try),
22', Urdapilleta B. (Conversion Goal),
30', Urdapilleta B. (Penalty Goal),
34', Urdapilleta B. (Penalty Goal),
35', Joseph J. (Try),
40+2', Grandidier-Nkanang A. (Try),
40+2', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 7)
50', Urdapilleta B. (Penalty Goal),
74', Gorgadze B. (Try),
75', Arfeuil G. (Conversion Goal),
78', Velarte L. (Try),
79', Reus H. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Top 14 (Relegation) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perpignan won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Perpignan could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Perpignan will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Perpignan won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 261:313. (average 20.1:24.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Perpignan won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 144:150. (average 24:25).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Section Paloise	20	13	0	7	591:514	59
13	USA Perpignan	20	5	0	15	408:563	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA Perpignan
French Top 14
31.01.26	Racing Métro - Perpignan	37:31 ✺
24.01.26	Perpignan - Montauban	31:8 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Perpignan - Lions	20:20 ✺
10.01.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Perpignan	26:19 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Perpignan - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWTLW
- Section Paloise
French Top 14
01.02.26	Section Paloise - Toulon	32:12 ✺
24.01.26	Toulouse - Section Paloise	59:22 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.01.26	Section Paloise - Blue Bulls	24:26 ✺
10.01.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Section Paloise	38:47 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Lyon - Section Paloise	22:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
01.11.25	Section Paloise - Perpignan	27:23
22.02.25	Section Paloise - Perpignan	23:6
05.10.24	Perpignan - Section Paloise	11:10
08.06.24	Section Paloise - Perpignan	36:24
29.10.23	Perpignan - Section Paloise	24:39
18.02.23	Perpignan - Section Paloise	49:29
03.09.22	Section Paloise - Perpignan	16:14

Perpignan - Section Paloise: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide