Match Info

Top 14 - Round 16

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade du Hameau (Pau)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Section Paloise		Toulon

	1	X	2
	1.3	26	3.6
	1.29	23	3.65
	1.33	23.27	3.67	Watch
	1.3	23	3.5
	1.26	18	3.85
	1.3	26	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.55)	23.21 ↑ (16.4)	3.67 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Section Paloise
71%

Draw
4%

Toulon
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

5.7%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

5.5%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Section Paloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Section Paloise's performance.

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Section Paloise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Section Paloise - Toulon Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Section Paloise will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Toulon will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Section Paloise (votes: 2 - 50%). Toulon (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5 - Toulon (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Section Paloise (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Toulon (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaulashvili L.	1. Priso D.
2. Montoya J.	2. Damond P.
3. Laclayat T.	3. Sinckler K.
4. Jolmes T.	4. Ribbans D.
5. Maximin J.	5. Alainu'uese B.
6. Whitelock L.	6. Albornoz T.
7. Credoz L.	7. Villiere G.
8. Isa F.	8. Sinzelle J.
9. Robson D.	9. Cowie O.
10. Desperes A.	10. Tuicuvu S.
11. Grandidier A.	11. Ludlam L.
12. Hewat R.	12. Abadie E.
13. Gailleton E.	13. Mercer Z.
14. Arfeuil G.	14. Le Bail C.
15. Maddocks J.	15. Jaminet M.
Substitutes
16. Delhommel Y.	16. Lucchesi G.
17. Biziwu D.	17. Brennan D.
18. Picquette R.	18. Javakhia G.
19. Zegueur S.	19. Kpoku J.
20. Luc A.	20. Coulon J.
21. Souverbie T.	21. Ferte M.
22. Mondinat C.	22. Domon M.
23. Tokolahi S.	23. Gigashvili B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 5)
7', Villiere G. (Try),
30', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
40', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (26 - 7)
50', Montoya J. (Try),
50', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
57', Montoya J. (Try),
57', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
59', Luc A. (Try),
59', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
71', Albornoz T. (Try),
71', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
79', Brennan D. 🟨,
80', Delhommel Y. (Try),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 2.

In recent matches, Section Paloise has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toulon is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Section Paloise may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Section Paloise is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 356:554. (average 17.8:27.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Section Paloise won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 198:215. (average 19.8:21.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Section Paloise	5	4	0	1	204:155	18
13	RC Toulonnais	5	1	0	4	101:115	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Section Paloise
French Top 14
24.01.26	Toulouse - Section Paloise	59:22 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
16.01.26	Section Paloise - Blue Bulls	24:26 ✺
10.01.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Section Paloise	38:47 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Lyon - Section Paloise	22:17 ✺
28.12.25	Section Paloise - Montpellier	35:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLWLW
- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
25.01.26	Toulon - Montpellier	30:27 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Gloucester - Toulon	14:31 ✺
11.01.26	Toulon - Munster	27:25 ✺
French Top 14
04.01.26	La Rochelle - Toulon	66:0 ✺
28.12.25	Toulon - Perpignan	31:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
04.10.25	Toulon - Section Paloise	33:17
17.05.25	Section Paloise - Toulon	25:21
21.12.24	Toulon - Section Paloise	56:25
24.02.24	Section Paloise - Toulon	17:9
02.12.23	Toulon - Section Paloise	36:13
28.01.23	Toulon - Section Paloise	27:16
01.10.22	Section Paloise - Toulon	17:34

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