Match Info
Top 14 - Round 16Date: 1 February 2026, SundayLocation: Stade du Hameau (Pau)Where to Watch on TV: | |
|---|
 France | CANAL+ France |
 United-kingdom | FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Section Paloise |
|
Toulon |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.3 |
26 |
3.6 |
|
 |
1.29 |
23 |
3.65 |
|
 |
1.33 |
23.27 |
3.67 |
 Watch |
 |
1.3 |
23 |
3.5 |
|
 |
1.26 |
18 |
3.85 |
|
 |
1.3 |
26 |
3.75 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.3 ↓
(1.55) |
23.21 ↑
(16.4) |
3.67 ↑
(2.79) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 53.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)
- The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Section Paloise
71% | Draw
4% | Toulon
25.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Section Paloise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Section Paloise's performance.Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Section Paloise than the current prediction. (-12.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Section Paloise that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+9.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Section Paloise will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Toulon will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Section Paloise (votes: 2 - 50%). Toulon (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -5.5 - Toulon (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -9.5 - Toulon (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -7.5 - Toulon (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Section Paloise (votes: 2 - 20%). Toulon (votes: 8 - 80%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:23 
#ad
Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1.  Kaulashvili L.
| 1.  Priso D.
|
2.  Montoya J.
| 2. Damond P.
|
3. Laclayat T.
| 3.  Sinckler K.
|
4. Jolmes T.
| 4. Ribbans D.
|
5. Maximin J.
| 5.  Alainu'uese B.
|
6.  Whitelock L.
| 6. Albornoz T.
|
7. Credoz L.
| 7. Villiere G.
|
8. Isa F.
| 8. Sinzelle J.
|
9. Robson D.
| 9. Cowie O.
|
10. Desperes A.
| 10.  Tuicuvu S.
|
11. Grandidier A.
| 11. Ludlam L.
|
12.  Hewat R.
| 12. Abadie E.
|
13. Gailleton E.
| 13. Mercer Z.
|
14. Arfeuil G.
| 14. Le Bail C.
|
15. Maddocks J.
| 15. Jaminet M.
|
| Substitutes |
|---|
16. Delhommel Y.
| 16.  Lucchesi G.
|
17. Biziwu D.
| 17. Brennan D.
|
18. Picquette R.
| 18. Javakhia G.
|
19. Zegueur S.
| 19. Kpoku J.
|
20. Luc A.
| 20. Coulon J.
|
21. Souverbie T.
| 21. Ferte M.
|
22. Mondinat C.
| 22. Domon M.
|
23.  Tokolahi S.
| 23. Gigashvili B.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (6 - 5)
- 7', Villiere G. (Try),
- 30', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
- 40', Desperes A. (Penalty Goal),
- 2nd Half (26 - 7)
- 50', Montoya J. (Try),
- 50', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
- 57', Montoya J. (Try),
- 57', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
- 59', Luc A. (Try),
- 59', Desperes A. (Conversion Goal),
- 71', Albornoz T. (Try),
- 71', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
- 79', Brennan D. 🟨,
- 80', Delhommel Y. (Try),
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 2.In recent matches, Section Paloise has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).Toulon is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).Section Paloise may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Section Paloise is considered a favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Section Paloise won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 356:554. (average 17.8:27.7).Including home matches between the teams, Section Paloise won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 198:215. (average 19.8:21.5).
banner
Standings
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
|
| 2 | Section Paloise | 20 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 591:514 | 59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 | RC Toulonnais | 20 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 512:618 | 45 |
|
|
|
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| French Top 14 | | | 04.10.25 | Toulon - Section Paloise | 33:17 | | 17.05.25 | Section Paloise - Toulon | 25:21 | | 21.12.24 | Toulon - Section Paloise | 56:25 | | 24.02.24 | Section Paloise - Toulon | 17:9 | | 02.12.23 | Toulon - Section Paloise | 36:13 | | 28.01.23 | Toulon - Section Paloise | 27:16 | | 01.10.22 | Section Paloise - Toulon | 17:34 |
|
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
100% up to €100 + €35 in Free Bets!
Betting Bonus up to 1 000 EUR + 250 EUR free bet !
