Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 4

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Perpignan		Lions

	1	X	2
	1.5	21	2.63
	1.59	25	2.38
	1.54	22.61	2.62	Watch
	1.53	23	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.69)	22.9 ↑ (21.33)	2.53 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perpignan
59.7%

Draw
4%

Lions
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

4.3%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

4.1%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perpignan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Perpignan's performance.

Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lions might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perpignan than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lions than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Perpignan - Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Perpignan will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Perpignan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tetrashvili G.	1. Davids E.
2. Ruiz I.	2. Brandon M.
3. Roelofse N.	3. Schoeman R.
4. Chinarro B.	4. Oosthuizen E.
5. Tuilagi P.	5. Nothnagel R.
6. Diaby M.	6. Du Plessis R.
7. Ritchie J. (C)	7. Hlekani B.
8. Oviedo J.	8. Horn F. (C)
9. Aprasidze G.	9. Pead H.
10. Aucagne A.	10. Smith C.
11. Duguivalu A.	11. Davids A.
12. Paiaaua D.	12. van Wyk H.
13. Mascarenc D.	13. Cronje E.
14. Petaia J.	14. Keyter E.
15. Forner T.	15. Horn Q.
Substitutes
16. Malolo S.	16. Botha P.
17. Beria G.	17. Kotze S.
18. Ceccarelli P.	18. van Vuuren C.
19. Warion A.	19. Schoeman R.
20. Tanguy M.	20. Landsberg D.
21. Le Corvec M.	21. Mahashe S.
22. Hall J.	22. Steyn N.
23. Reus H.	23. Mills B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (10 - 10)
4', Aucagne A. (Penalty Goal),
22', (Penalty Try),
22', Ruiz I. 🟨,
25', Smith C. (Penalty Goal),
29', Oviedo J. (Try),
30', Aucagne A. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 10)
58', Smith C. (Penalty Goal),
64', Botha P. (Try),
65', Smith C. (Conversion Goal),
69', Duguivalu A. (Try),
70', Aucagne A. (Conversion Goal),
73', Aucagne A. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Perpignan is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Perpignan will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Perpignan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:28.

Including home match between the teams, Perpignan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:28.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA Perpignan
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.01.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Perpignan	26:19 ✺
French Top 14
03.01.26	Perpignan - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
28.12.25	Toulon - Perpignan	31:16 ✺
20.12.25	Perpignan - Clermont	26:20 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Benetton Treviso - Perpignan	44:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWLWL
- Lions Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.01.26	Lions - Lyon	42:33 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Sharks - Lions	22:23 ✺
20.12.25	Stormers - Lions	34:27 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Lions	14:10 ✺
06.12.25	Lions - Benetton Treviso	18:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
10.12.23	Perpignan - Lions	12:28

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