Match Info

WORLD: Super Rugby - Round 8

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Referee: Williams P. (Nzl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport


	Rebels		Highlanders

	1	X	2
	2.25	21	1.67
	2.3	21	1.62
	2.2	15	1.78	Watch
	2.25	21	1.67
	2.2	18	1.75
	2.22	22	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.67)	19.67 ↑ (17)	1.7 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rebels
41.1%

Draw
4.7%

Highlanders
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

5.4%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rebels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rebels's performance.

Highlanders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Highlanders might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rebels than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rebels that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Highlanders than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Highlanders could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rebels - Highlanders Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:30

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gibbon M.	1. Lienert-Brown D.
2. Uelese J.	2. Bell H.
3. Talakai S.	3. Ma'u S.
4. Tualima T.	4. Haig O.
5. Salakaia-Loto L.	5. Parkinson P.
6. Kemeny J.	6. Withy S.
7. Nabolakasi M.	7. Harmon B.
8. Ekuasi V.	8. Broughton N.
9. Louwrens R.	9. Fakatava F.
10. Gordon C.	10. Faleafaga A.
11. Lancaster D.	11. Nareki J.
12. Feliuai D.	12. Gilbert S.
13. Daugunu F.	13. Tele'a T.
14. Anderson L.	14. Tavatavanawai T.
15. Kellaway A.	15. Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens J.
Substitutes
16. Mafi A.	16. Jackson R.
17. Kailea I. A.	17. de Groot E.
18. Tupou T.	18. Wingham R.
19. Smith A.	19. Plummer H.
20. Maiava D.	20. Stodart W.
21. Maunder J.	21. Arscott J.
22. Proctor M.	22. Whaanga M.
23. Jooste N.	23. Garden-Bochop C.
Coaches
. Foote K.	. Dermody C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 10)
3', Louwrens R. (Try),
4', Gordon C. (Missed Conversion),
4', Lowe J. ↓, Whaanga M. ↑,
11', Withy S. (Try),
11', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
20', Gilbert S. (Penalty Goal),
21', Lancaster D. (Try),
22', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),
28', Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens J. 🟨,
28', (Penalty Try),
40+1', Lancaster D. (Try),
40+3', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 21)
41', Uelese J. ↓, Mafi A. ↑,
46', Gibbon M. ↓, Kailea I. A. ↑,
46', Talakai S. ↓, Tupou T. ↑,
49', Lienert-Brown D. ↓, de Groot E. ↑,
51', Feliuai D. ↓, Jooste N. ↑,
57', Fakatava F. (Try),
58', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
60', Gordon C. (Try),
61', Anderson L. ↓, Proctor M. ↑,
61', Tualima T. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
61', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),
62', Bell H. ↓, Jackson R. ↑,
62', Broughton N. ↓, Stodart W. ↑,
66', Kemeny J. ↓, Maiava D. ↑,
67', Nareki J. ↓, Garden-Bochop C. ↑,
69', Jackson R. (Try),
70', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
71', Gordon C. (Try),
72', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),
73', Ma'u S. ↓, Wingham R. ↑,
73', Fakatava F. ↓, Arscott J. ↑,
74', Daugunu F. ↓, Maunder J. ↑,
75', de Groot E. (Try),
76', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
79', Lancaster D. (Try),
80', Gordon C. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rebels won 3.

Recent matches Rebels is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Highlanders is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Highlanders will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Rebels won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 247-324.

Including matches at home between the teams Rebels won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 96-113.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rebels Rugby
Super Rugby
05.04.24	Rebels - Fijian Drua	41:20 ✺
29.03.24	Waratahs - Rebels	21:27 ✺
22.03.24	Hurricanes - Rebels	54:28 ✺
15.03.24	Rebels - Reds	26:53 ✺
08.03.24	Moana Pasifika - Rebels	23:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWLLW
- Highlanders Rugby
Super Rugby
30.03.24	Highlanders - Hurricanes	12:47 ✺
22.03.24	Chiefs - Highlanders	28:21 ✺
15.03.24	Highlanders - Brumbies	21:27 ✺
08.03.24	Waratahs - Highlanders	21:23 ✺
01.03.24	Highlanders - Blues	29:37 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
20.05.23	Highlanders - Rebels	20:17
29.05.22	Rebels - Highlanders	31:30
30.05.21	Highlanders - Rebels	42:27
28.02.20	Highlanders - Rebels	22:28
01.03.19	Rebels - Highlanders	24:19
14.07.18	Highlanders - Rebels	43:37
31.03.17	Highlanders - Rebels	51:12

Rebels - Highlanders: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide