Match Info

FRANCE: Pro D2 - Round 26

Date: 12 April 2024, Friday


	Rouen Normandie		Provence Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.4	21	3.1
	1.5	21	2.7
	1.49	15	2.9
	1.5	21	2.62
	1.41	15	2.96
	1.44	21	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.95)	19 ↑ (15.67)	2.86 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rouen Normandie
63%

Draw
4.8%

Provence Rugby
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

5.9%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

5.2%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rouen Normandie has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rouen Normandie's performance.

Provence Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Provence Rugby might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rouen Normandie than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rouen Normandie that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Provence Rugby could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rouen Normandie - Provence Rugby Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:25

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (16 - 21)
3', Piazzoli G. (Try),
4', Cazenave J. (Conversion Goal),
6', Sidobre M. (Try),
7', Pourteau F. (Conversion Goal),
18', Pourteau F. (Penalty Goal),
20', Piazzoli G. (Try),
20', Cazenave J. (Conversion Goal),
25', Pourteau F. (Penalty Goal),
27', Cazenave J. (Try),
27', Cazenave J. (Conversion Goal),
40+3', Pourteau F. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (13 - 7)
53', Maafu E. (Try),
54', Pourteau F. (Conversion Goal),
56', Cazenave J. (Try),
57', Cazenave J. (Conversion Goal),
69', Pourteau F. (Penalty Goal),
75', Pourteau F. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rouen won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Rouen will have a poor advantage in this game.

Our prediction for today's Rouen to win the game is with odds 1.58.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Rouen won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 182-195.

Including matches at home between the teams Rouen won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 86-67.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rouen Normandie Rugby
French Pro D2
05.04.24	Rouen Normandie - Béziers	20:14 ✺
29.03.24	Agen - Rouen Normandie	24:23 ✺
08.03.24	Rouen Normandie - Stade Aurillacois	38:13 ✺
01.03.24	FC Grenoble - Rouen Normandie	43:16 ✺
23.02.24	Rouen Normandie - Montauban	29:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWLW
- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
05.04.24	Provence Rugby - Montauban	29:12 ✺
29.03.24	Stade Aurillacois - Provence Rugby	20:24 ✺
07.03.24	Nevers - Provence Rugby	27:22 ✺
01.03.24	Provence Rugby - Colomiers	27:18 ✺
23.02.24	SA XV Charente - Provence Rugby	33:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
01.12.23	Provence Rugby - Rouen Normandie	45:24
17.03.23	Rouen Normandie - Provence Rugby	29:29
09.12.22	Provence Rugby - Rouen Normandie	27:19
15.04.22	Rouen Normandie - Provence Rugby	36:12
24.09.21	Provence Rugby - Rouen Normandie	21:22
23.04.21	Rouen Normandie - Provence Rugby	21:26
24.10.20	Provence Rugby - Rouen Normandie	22:22

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