Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 5

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday


	South Canterbury		Mid Canterbury

	1	X	2
	2.23	24	1.68
	2.36	21	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (1.71)	22.5 ↓ (23)	1.66 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Canterbury
40.2%

Draw
4.1%

Mid Canterbury
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Canterbury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that South Canterbury's form might have worsened.

Mid Canterbury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mid Canterbury's recent form is better than expected.

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, South Cant won 3.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, South Cant won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 199:97. (average 28.4:13.9).

Including home matches between the teams, South Cant won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 114:49. (average 28.5:12.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
05.09.25	South Canterbury - Whanganui	35:24 ✺
29.08.25	Buller - South Canterbury	24:64
22.08.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	34:35 ✺
15.08.25	Wairarapa Bush - South Canterbury	29:50
11.10.24	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	16:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLWL
- Mid Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
05.09.25	Mid Canterbury - East Coast	82:7 ✺
29.08.25	Wairarapa Bush - Mid Canterbury	33:36 ✺
22.08.25	Mid Canterbury - Horowhenua-Kapiti	40:27 ✺
15.08.25	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	34:50 ✺
18.10.24	Thames Valley - Mid Canterbury	37:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
11.10.24	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	16:17
30.08.24	Mid Canterbury - South Canterbury	19:41
29.10.21	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	43:22
13.09.19	Mid Canterbury - South Canterbury	13:13
21.09.18	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	41:10
08.09.17	Mid Canterbury - South Canterbury	16:31
14.10.16	South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury	14:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
09.10.26	South Canterbury - Wairarapa Bush	✺
- Mid Canterbury Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
09.10.26	Mid Canterbury - Thames Valley	✺

South Canterbury - Mid Canterbury: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide