Match Info

World Rugby Nations Cup - Round 2

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
New-zealand	Sky Sport 4
International	RugbyPass TV


	Tonga		Spain

	1	X	2
	1.46	22.75	2.62
	1.55	27	2.48	Watch
	1.48	24	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.69)	24.58 ↑ (23)	2.6 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonga
61.1%

Draw
3.7%

Spain
35.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.4%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tonga's performance.

Spain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Spain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Tonga - Spain Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Tonga will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fisiihoi S.	1. Futeu T.
2. Moli S.	2. Garcia A.
3. Moli A.	3. Pirlet H.
4. Tupou J.	4. Urraza I.
5. Poloniati V.	5. Suarez A.
6. Tuitupou S.	6. Velez G.
7. Paea S.	7. Pineiro I.
8. Pauta O.	8. Ariceta M.
9. Takulua S.	9. Bay E.
10. Pellegrini P.	10. Lopez Bontempo G.
11. Tapueluelu J.	11. Carmona A.
12. Kata S.	12. Gimeno A.
13. Inisi F.	13. Cian M.
14. Filimone T.	14. Manteca J.
15. Havili W.	15. Bell J.
Substitutes
16. Lopeti S.	16. Ovejero S.
17. Kite P.	17. Tabarot L.
18. Latu P.	18. Zabala J.
19. Ngakuru M.	19. Triki M.
20. Tuipulotu S.	20. Gonzalez D.
21. Nginingini S.	21. Aurrekoetea K.
22. Mausia O.	22. Mateu I.
28. Tui S.	23. Trevithick J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 17)
2nd Half (14 - 15)

Preview

Tonga could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tonga won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 88:48. (average 29.3:16).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonga rugby
World Rugby Nations Cup
04.07.26	Tonga - Zimbabwe	36:26 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
23.11.25	Scotland - Tonga	56:0 ✺
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
20.09.25	Tonga - Canada	35:24 ✺
14.09.25	Tonga - Japan	24:62 ✺
29.08.25	Fiji - Tonga	32:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLWLL
- Spain rugby
World Rugby Nations Cup
04.07.26	Canada - Spain	42:42 ✺
Rugby Europe Championship
15.03.26	Romania - Spain	23:29 ✺
08.03.26	Portugal - Spain	26:7 ✺
21.02.26	Georgia - Spain	42:30 ✺
14.02.26	Spain - Switzerland	53:14
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 38.4 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
18.07.24	Tonga - Spain	20:29
05.11.22	Spain - Tonga	6:40
12.11.16	Spain - Tonga	13:28

Tonga - Spain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide