Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 15

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Ravenhill Stadium (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Ulster		Leinster

	1	X	2
	1.53	21	2.63
	1.53	23	2.55
	1.56	20.07	2.59	Watch
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.54	21	2.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.77)	21.21 ↓ (22.06)	2.58 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 49.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
59.8%

Draw
4.4%

Leinster
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

4.2%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

4.6%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ulster's performance.

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leinster might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulster than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ulster that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leinster than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leinster could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ulster - Leinster Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Ulster will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:23

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 15)
2nd Half (21 - 14)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 1.

Ulster is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leinster has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ulster could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Ulster will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 354:554. (average 17.7:27.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 117:160. (average 16.7:22.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
10	Ulster	3	0	2	1	88:93	9
11	Leinster	3	1	0	2	75:58	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
10.04.26	Ulster - La Rochelle	41:24 ✺
04.04.26	Ulster - Ospreys	28:24 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Zebre - Ulster	12:28 ✺
20.03.26	Ulster - Connacht	19:26 ✺
13.03.26	Edinburgh - Ulster	19:40 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWLW
- Leinster Rugby
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.26	Leinster - Sale Sharks	43:13 ✺
05.04.26	Leinster - Edinburgh	49:31 ✺
United Rugby Championship
27.03.26	Leinster - Llanelli Scarlets	36:19 ✺
21.03.26	Glasgow Warriors - Leinster	38:17 ✺
27.02.26	Cardiff Rugby - Leinster	8:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
19.12.25	Leinster - Ulster	24:20
19.04.25	Leinster - Ulster	41:17
29.11.24	Ulster - Leinster	20:27
08.06.24	Leinster - Ulster	43:20
18.05.24	Ulster - Leinster	23:21
01.01.24	Leinster - Ulster	21:22
European Rugby Champions Cup
01.04.23	Leinster - Ulster	30:15

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