Match Info

WORLD: United Rugby Championship - Round 12

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Ravenhill Stadium (Belfast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, BBC Two, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, S4C Clic, S4C Digital, URC
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ulster		Llanelli Scarlets

	1	X	2
	1.36	23	3.2
	1.34	23	3.25
	1.38	28	3.15	Watch
	1.33	26	3.25
	1.37	20	3.49
	1.34	23	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.36)	23.83 ↑ (21.29)	3.27 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
68%

Draw
3.9%

Llanelli Scarlets
28.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.5%

4.3%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

The chances for Llanelli Scarlets have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:18

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
. Dalton M.	4. Douglas M.
. McKee C.	5. Lousi S.
2. Herring R.	7. Davis D.
4. O'Connor A.	9. Davies G.
6. McNabney J.	10. Lloyd I.
7. Timoney N.	12. Williams J.
10. Murphy J.	13. Roberts J.
11. Stockdale J.	14. Lewis T.
12. McCloskey S.	15. Nicholas I.
13. Hume J.	16. Elias R.
14. Lowry M.	17. Hepburn A.
15. Moore S.	18. Wainwright S.
17. Reid C.	19. Craig A.
18. Wilson S.	20. Taylor J.
20. Rea M.	23. Page M.
Substitutes
. Crean S.	. Hawley G.
3. O'Toole T.	. O'Connor S.
8. McCann D.	. Price J.
9. Doak N.	2. van der Merwe M.
16. Andrew J.	8. Fifita V.
19. Treadwell K.	11. Evans S.
22. Flannery J.	21. Hughes A.
23. Postlethwaite J.	22. Titcombe C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 15)
5', Page M. (Try),
6', Lloyd I. (Conversion Goal),
11', Nicholas I. (Try),
23', Timoney N. (Try),
24', Murphy J. (Conversion Goal),
28', Murphy J. (Penalty Goal),
38', Murphy J. (Penalty Goal),
40+2', Lloyd I. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (17 - 13)
43', Murphy J. (Penalty Goal),
47', Lloyd I. (Penalty Goal),
54', Reid C. (Try),
55', Murphy J. (Conversion Goal),
57', Fifita V. (Try),
58', Lloyd I. (Conversion Goal),
71', Lloyd I. (Penalty Goal),
78', O'Connor A. (Try),
79', Doak N. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ulster won 5.

Recent matches Scarlets is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Ulster is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Ulster won 13 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 445:388 (average 22.3:19.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Ulster won 10 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 242:150 (average 22:13.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
15.02.25	Benetton Treviso - Ulster	34:19 ✺
26.01.25	Ulster - Zebre	14:15 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.25	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	52:24 ✺
11.01.25	Leicester Tigers - Ulster	38:10 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.12.24	Connacht - Ulster	7:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLWLW
- Llanelli Scarlets
United Rugby Championship
15.02.25	Munster - Llanelli Scarlets	29:8 ✺
25.01.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Edinburgh	30:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.01.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Vannes	38:28 ✺
10.01.25	Gloucester - Llanelli Scarlets	31:7 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
11.05.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	20:31
24.09.22	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	39:55
28.01.22	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	27:15
Pro14 Rainbow Cup
29.05.21	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	Scarlets awarded
United Rugby Championship
22.11.20	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	26:24
29.11.19	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	29:5
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.18	Ulster - Llanelli Scarlets	30:15

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