Match Info

Bunnings NPC

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport


	Wellington		Southland

	1	X	2
	1.09	40	6.6
	1.16	26	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↓ (1.17)	33 ↑ (31)	6.18 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-18)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington
82.2%

Draw
2.8%

Southland
15%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

78.6%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Southland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Wellington - Southland Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Southland will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Southland (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 38:20

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 5.

Recent form of Wellington has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Southland's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Wellington is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 366:122. (average 45.8:15.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 211:79. (average 42.2:15.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Rugby
New Zealand NPC
11.09.25	Northland - Wellington	43:26 ✺
05.09.25	Hawkes Bay - Wellington	45:19 ✺
30.08.25	Wellington - Auckland	36:17 ✺
24.08.25	Manawatu - Wellington	38:28 ✺
16.08.25	Wellington - Otago	41:46 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLL
- Southland
New Zealand NPC
14.09.25	Southland - Counties Manukau	10:64 ✺
06.09.25	Southland - Canterbury	14:54 ✺
31.08.25	Waikato - Southland	10:25 ✺
21.08.25	Bay of Plenty - Southland	25:30 ✺
15.08.25	Southland - Manawatu	29:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
06.09.24	Wellington - Southland	36:12
18.08.23	Wellington - Southland	39:17
03.09.22	Southland - Wellington	28:41
Club Friendly Rugby Union
22.10.21	Wellington - Southland	24:22
New Zealand NPC
31.08.18	Wellington - Southland	52:7
07.10.17	Southland - Wellington	12:61
30.09.16	Wellington - Southland	60:21

Wellington - Southland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide