Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 16

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Referee: Way J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Brumbies		Moana Pasifika

	1	X	2
	1.04	51	10
	1.04	50	9.8
	1.04	37.75	11.5	Watch
	1.04	41	11
	1.04	50	14	Watch
	1.05	50	8.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↓ (1.07)	46.63 ↑ (26)	10.85 ↑ (8.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 66.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-24)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brumbies
89.4%

Draw
2%

Moana Pasifika
8.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

85.5%

3.5%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brumbies has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Moana Pasifika has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Brumbies - Moana Pasifika Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Brumbies will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 45:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Slipper J.	1. Hala M.
2. Pollard B.	2. Sanerivi M.
3. Alaalatoa A.	3. Moli A.
4. Shaw L.	4. Craig A.
5. Neville C.	5. Poloniati V.
6. Valetini R.	6. Faiilagi M.
7. Scott R.	7. Paea S.
8. Cale C.	8. Tupou Ta'eiloa S.
9. Lonergan R.	9. Pulu A.
10. Meredith D.	10. Pellegrini P.
11. Toole C.	11. Vaihu G.
12. Feliuai D.	12. Peni F.
13. Creighton H.	13. Alaimalo S.
14. Muirhead A.	14. Leota I.
15. Wright T.	15. Havili W.
Substitutes
16. Lonergan L.	16. Harada M.
17. Schoupp B.	17. Pole A.
18. Van Nek R.	18. Latu P.
19. Frost N.	19. Aho A.
20. Reimer L.	20. Tuitupou S. A.
21. Thorn K.	21. Matavao M.
22. Edmed T.	22. Latu T.
23. McLeod J.	23. Tuitama T.
Coaches
. Larkham S.	. Umaga T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 14)
2', Scott R. (Try),
3', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
11', Leota I. ↓, Tuitama T. ↑,
15', Wright T. (Try),
16', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
17', Slipper J. 🟨,
18', Scott R. ↓, Schoupp B. ↑,
19', Pellegrini P. (Try),
20', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
30', Pellegrini P. (Try),
31', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
31', Schoupp B. ↓, Scott R. ↑,
34', Peni F. 🟨,
2nd Half (5 - 7)
41', Pollard B. ↓, Lonergan L. ↑,
41', Neville C. ↓, Frost N. ↑,
41', Meredith D. ↓, Edmed T. ↑,
44', Paea S. ↓, Tuitupou S. A. ↑,
45', Alaimalo S. ↓, Latu T. ↑,
48', Cale C. ↓, Reimer L. ↑,
49', Moli A. ↓, Latu P. ↑,
50', Lonergan L. ↓, Pollard B. ↑,
53', Feliuai D. ↓, McLeod J. ↑,
53', Hala M. ↓, Pole A. ↑,
53', Poloniati V. ↓, Aho A. ↑,
53', Sanerivi M. ↓, Harada M. ↑,
54', Reimer L. (Try),
55', Lonergan R. (Missed Conversion),
55', Slipper J. ↓, Schoupp B. ↑,
57', Lonergan R. ↓, Thorn K. ↑,
59', Alaalatoa A. ↓, Van Nek R. ↑,
60', Pulu A. ↓, Matavao M. ↑,
62', Peni F. 🟥,
62', McLeod J. ↓, Feliuai D. ↑,
66', Latu P. ↓, Moli A. ↑,
72', Matavao M. (Try),
73', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
74', Creighton H. ↓, McLeod J. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7).

Brumbies has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Moana Pasifika has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Moana Pasifika may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brumbies is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Brumbies won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 168:89. (average 42:22.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Brumbies won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 122:57. (average 61:28.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brumbies Rugby
Super Rugby
22.05.26	Waratahs - Brumbies	14:21 ✺
09.05.26	Brumbies - Western Force	32:15 ✺
02.05.26	Reds - Brumbies	30:21 ✺
25.04.26	Hurricanes - Brumbies	45:12 ✺
18.04.26	Brumbies - Fijian Drua	28:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWLLL
- Moana Pasifika
Super Rugby
23.05.26	Moana Pasifika - Reds	31:33 ✺
09.05.26	Moana Pasifika - Hurricanes	17:50 ✺
02.05.26	Moana Pasifika - Blues	19:45 ✺
25.04.26	Highlanders - Moana Pasifika	27:17 ✺
17.04.26	Waratahs - Moana Pasifika	29:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
19.04.25	Moana Pasifika - Brumbies	0:24
22.03.24	Brumbies - Moana Pasifika	60:21
18.03.23	Brumbies - Moana Pasifika	62:36
28.05.22	Moana Pasifika - Brumbies	32:22

Brumbies - Moana Pasifika: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide