Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 13

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: GIO Stadium (Canberra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brumbies		Western Force

	1	X	2
	1.57	21	2.5
	1.47	22	2.7
	1.32	22.45	3.57	Watch
	1.5	23	2.7
	1.45	19	2.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.38)	21.49 ↑ (19.18)	2.86 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brumbies
63.3%

Draw
4.3%

Western Force
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.9%

4.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.3%

5.2%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brumbies has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Western Force has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brumbies than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brumbies, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Western Force than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Western Force, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Brumbies - Western Force Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Brumbies will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Slipper J.	1. Robertson T.
2. Lonergan L.	2. Paenga-Amosa B.
3. Alaalatoa A.	3. Johnson-Holmes H.
4. Frost N.	4. Williams J. (C)
5. Shaw L.	5. Swain D.
6. Valetini R.	6. Champion de Crespigny R.
7. Scott R.	7. Tizzano C.
8. MacPherson T.	8. Ekuasi V.
9. Lonergan R. (C)	9. Robertson H.
10. Meredith D.	10. Donaldson B.
11. Toole C.	11. Pietsch D.
12. Feliuai D.	12. Stewart H.
13. Creighton H.	13. Bridge G.
14. Sapsford O.	14. Lomax Z.
15. Wright T.	15. Grealy M.
Substitutes
16. Pollard B.	16. Dolly N.
17. Schoupp B.	17. Pearce M.
18. Van Nek R.	18. Faagase S.
19. Neville C.	19. Molina F.
20. Mickelson C.	20. Harris W.
21. Thorn K.	21. Hastie N.
22. Edmed T.	22. Kuenzle B.
23. Muirhead A.	23. Beale K.
Coaches
. Larkham S.	. Cron S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 10)
2', Shaw L. (Try),
3', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
15', Robertson H. ↓, Hastie N. ↑,
16', Johnson-Holmes H. (Try),
18', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
30', Donaldson B. (Penalty Goal),
31', Sapsford O. (Try),
32', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 5)
41', Robertson T. ↓, Pearce M. ↑,
49', Lonergan R. (Penalty Goal),
52', Lonergan R. (Try),
53', Lonergan R. (Missed Conversion),
54', Lonergan L. ↓, Pollard B. ↑,
54', Alaalatoa A. ↓, Van Nek R. ↑,
54', Shaw L. ↓, Neville C. ↑,
54', Slipper J. ↓, Schoupp B. ↑,
54', Johnson-Holmes H. ↓, Faagase S. ↑,
54', Swain D. ↓, Harris W. ↑,
60', Tizzano C. (Try),
61', Donaldson B. (Missed Conversion),
63', Paenga-Amosa B. ↓, Dolly N. ↑,
65', Donaldson B. ↓, Beale K. ↑,
71', Molina F. ↓, Faifua L. ↑,
72', Lonergan R. (Penalty Goal),
72', Scott R. ↓, Mickelson C. ↑,
74', Mickelson C. (Try),
75', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
76', Wright T. ↓, Muirhead A. ↑,
76', Lonergan R. ↓, Thorn K. ↑,
76', Meredith D. ↓, Edmed T. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brumbies won 3.

Brumbies has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Western Force has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Western Force may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Brumbies is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brumbies won 17 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 631:411. (average 31.6:20.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Brumbies won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 281:168. (average 31.2:18.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brumbies Rugby
Super Rugby
02.05.26	Reds - Brumbies	30:21 ✺
25.04.26	Hurricanes - Brumbies	45:12 ✺
18.04.26	Brumbies - Fijian Drua	28:33 ✺
10.04.26	Highlanders - Brumbies	10:14 ✺
27.03.26	Brumbies - Waratahs	28:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWL
- Western Force Rugby
Super Rugby
01.05.26	Waratahs - Western Force	17:20 ✺
18.04.26	Western Force - Crusaders	31:26 ✺
11.04.26	Fijian Drua - Western Force	24:22 ✺
04.04.26	Reds - Western Force	19:42 ✺
28.03.26	Western Force - Chiefs	14:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
14.02.26	Western Force - Brumbies	24:56
Super Rugby AUS
20.09.25	Western Force - Brumbies	46:35
Super Rugby
10.05.25	Western Force - Brumbies	14:33
22.02.25	Brumbies - Western Force	42:45
01.06.24	Western Force - Brumbies	19:24
08.03.24	Brumbies - Western Force	22:19
20.05.23	Western Force - Brumbies	34:19

Brumbies - Western Force: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide