Match Info

Heartland Championships - Round 7

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Thames Valley		West Coast

	1	X	2
	1.3	25	3.7
	1.11	26	6.45
	1.23	30	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.39)	27 ↓ (29.5)	4.62 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thames Valley
76.5%

Draw
3.4%

West Coast
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

3.1%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72%

2.9%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thames Valley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Thames Valley's performance.

West Coast has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and West Coast might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thames Valley than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for West Coast than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that West Coast could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 0)
2nd Half (26 - 7)

Preview

Thames Valley is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

West Coast has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Thames Valley is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Thames Valley won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 42:51. (average 21:25.5).

Including home match between the teams, Thames Valley won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 25:27.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thames Valley Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	Thames Valley - East Coast	84:5 ✺
12.09.25	Buller - Thames Valley	5:40 ✺
05.09.25	North Otago - Thames Valley	45:36 ✺
29.08.25	Thames Valley - King Country	24:20 ✺
22.08.25	South Canterbury - Thames Valley	34:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLWW
- West Coast Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
19.09.25	West Coast - North Otago	31:38 ✺
12.09.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - West Coast	27:26 ✺
05.09.25	West Coast - Wairarapa Bush	14:24 ✺
29.08.25	Whanganui - West Coast	19:38 ✺
22.08.25	East Coast - West Coast	21:80 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
24.08.18	Thames Valley - West Coast	25:27
06.10.17	West Coast - Thames Valley	24:17

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