Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)

Referee: Scerri J. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Żabbar St. Patrick		Marsaxlokk

	1	X	2
	5.15	3.8	1.52	Watch
	5.76	3.6	1.6
	5.11	4.26	1.52	Watch
	5.5	3.4	1.57
	4.93	3.89	1.61
	4.5	3.6	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.16 ↑ (3.79)	3.76 ↑ (3.44)	1.57 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Żabbar St. Patrick
17.7%

Draw
24.2%

Marsaxlokk
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

26.8%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

26.8%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Żabbar St. Patrick has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Żabbar St. Patrick's form might have worsened.

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marsaxlokk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Żabbar St. Patrick than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Żabbar St. Patrick, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marsaxlokk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Żabbar St. Patrick - Marsaxlokk Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Marsaxlokk (2.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Marsaxlokk will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marsaxlokk will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Marsaxlokk (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Djalo M. (G) 9. Cejas P. 10. Gambarte B. (C) 15. Im Y. W. 21. Jovancic S. 22. Leonardi Z. 19. Majok A. 16. Micallef J. 71. Pisani J. 55. Scicluna K. 30. Scicluna R.	1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 16. Arias U. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 19. Kirby J. 9. Linden R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 3. Weder
Substitutes
11. Agius N. 1. Colombo I. (G) 77. Etim A. 24. Eviparker T. 8. Figueiredo B. 89. Fontanella M. 5. Forte M. 91. Grech J. (G) 20. Micallef L. 23. Polidano Z. 7. Soldo M.	14. Attard E. 15. Borg I. 23. Caruana T. 34. Christie-Davies I. 20. Karamitsios G. 56. Kikushima M. (G) 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 33. Simkus D. 12. Vella D. (G) 21. Vella J.
Coaches
Parisi A.	Potenza V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Dodo ⚽,
39', 0 - 2, Minala J. ⚽,
44', 1 - 2, Im Y. W. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Majok A. ↓, Agius N. ↑,
46', Im Y. W. ↓, Figueiredo B. ↑,
52', Kirby J. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
65', Gambarte B. ↓, Micallef L. ↑,
74', Arias U. ↓, Caruana T. ↑,
79', Scicluna R. ↓, Eviparker T. ↑,
83', Linden R. ↓, Vella J. ↑,
84', Minala J. 🟨,
90+1', Micallef J. ↓, Etim A. ↑,
90+5', Figueiredo B. 🟨,
90+6', Etim A. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone Premier League (Second stage ~ Play Out: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Second stage ~ Top 6: )).

Żabbar is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marsaxlokk is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Żabbar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Żabbar has had a series of away games.

Marsaxlokk could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Żabbar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Żabbar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11
9	Zabbar	6	1	2	3	5:9	-4	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Żabbar St. Patrick FC
Maltese Premier League
04.02.26	Paola Hibernians - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Floriana	0:3 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
28.01.26	Floriana - Żabbar St. Patrick	0:1 penalties ✺
Maltese Premier League
23.01.26	Naxxar Lions - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
16.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLWLL
- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
03.02.26	Marsaxlokk - Sliema Wanderers	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Tarxien Rainbows	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
29.10.25	Marsaxlokk - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:0
19.01.25	Marsaxlokk - Żabbar St. Patrick	3:1
02.10.24	Żabbar St. Patrick - Marsaxlokk	1:3

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