Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 18

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)

Referee: Scerri J. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Naxxar Lions		Żabbar St. Patrick

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.15	2.38
	2.66	3.25	2.49
	2.64	3.34	2.45	Watch
	2.7	3	2.45
	2.6	3.18	2.42
	2.57	3.1	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↓ (3.65)	3.17 ↓ (3.61)	2.43 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Naxxar Lions
34.3%

Draw
28.5%

Żabbar St. Patrick
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

25.5%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.4%

25.3%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naxxar Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Naxxar Lions's performance.

Żabbar St. Patrick has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Żabbar St. Patrick might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Naxxar Lions that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Żabbar St. Patrick than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Żabbar St. Patrick could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Naxxar Lions - Żabbar St. Patrick Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Żabbar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Naxxar (1.51) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Naxxar (votes: 4 - 80%). Żabbar (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Debono M. (G) 7. Fenech M. (C) 33. Joao Moura 3. JP Iseppe 22. Kontchou C. 21. Micallef M. 9. Pahama N. 19. Rosiel 4. Theo Kruger 24. Vinicius Baiano 11. Vitinho	1. Colombo I. (G) 11. Agius N. 9. Cejas P. 89. Fontanella M. 5. Forte M. 15. Im Y. W. 22. Leonardi Z. 33. Mayron 16. Micallef J. 71. Pisani J. (C) 7. Soldo M.
Substitutes
28. Bonanno G. 17. Bugeja F. 10. Farias E. 14. Gauci C. 30. Guehi S. 31. Hudson M. 18. Letherby D. 15. Montero Y. 8. Pace Cocks N. 25. Portelli O. 99. Vella A. (G)	31. Attard S. 3. Bonnici M. 17. Dalli C. 99. Djalo M. (G) 77. Etim A. 24. Eviparker T. 10. Gambarte B. 91. Grech J. (G) 21. Jovancic S. 20. Micallef L. 23. Polidano Z.
Coaches
Muscat W.	Parisi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Mayron 🟨,
43', Fontanella M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Cejas P. ⚽,
56', Kontchou C. ↓, Montero Y. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
67', Fontanella M. ↓, Etim A. ↑,
68', Forte M. ↓, Micallef L. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Vinicius Baiano ⚽,
80', Soldo M. ↓, Eviparker T. ↑,
83', Theo Kruger 🟨,
85', Pisani J. ↓, Dalli C. ↑,
88', Joao Moura ↓, Hudson M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 1.

Naxxar is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Żabbar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Żabbar is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Naxxar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Zabbar	6	1	2	3	5:9	-4	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
17.01.26	Floriana - Naxxar Lions	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Naxxar Lions - Tarxien Rainbows	1:0 ✺
08.01.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	1:2 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Marsa - Naxxar Lions	0:3 ✺
Maltese Premier League
19.12.25	Mosta - Naxxar Lions	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWWWW
- Żabbar St. Patrick FC
Maltese Premier League
16.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Gżira United - Żabbar St. Patrick	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	1:2 ✺
18.12.25	Paola Hibernians - Żabbar St. Patrick	3:3 ✺
12.12.25	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
08.01.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	1:2
13.09.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	1:1
05.04.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	2:0
01.03.25	Naxxar Lions - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1
08.12.24	Naxxar Lions - Żabbar St. Patrick	0:3
22.09.24	Żabbar St. Patrick - Naxxar Lions	3:3

Upcoming Matches