Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo Conde de Sucena (Sintra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	1 Dezembro		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.1
	3.35	3.1	2.07
	3.61	3.17	2.17
	3.57	3.17	2.13	Watch
	3.48	3.17	2.14	Watch
	3.35	3.1	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↓ (3.44)	3.14 ↑ (3.07)	2.11 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

1 Dezembro
27%

Draw
29.4%

Lusitânia
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

29.9%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

29.1%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

1 Dezembro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+1%)

1 Dezembro - Lusitânia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Oliveira G. (G) 4. Ramos P. 2. Cesinha 20. Silva R. 13. Bernardo J. (C) 6. Santos T. 19. Valente A. 28. Brazao D. 99. Pedro Clemente 11. Batalha R. 10. Araujo J.	1. Cioletti G. (G) 85. Castro D. 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 29. Cerveira T. 6. Martins H. 77. Goba Zakpa (C) 80. Renato Luis 11. Pereira M. 21. Joao Vasco 12. Arsenio
Substitutes
25. Bonito D. 79. Cardoso D. 12. Duarte F. (G) 39. Ebube 17. Harramiz S. 23. Lisandro Menezes 24. Roldan F. 5. Sousa A. 77. Teixeira T.	7. Avto 20. Faria R. 5. Oliveira J. 18. Pereira D. 10. Ribeiro S. 41. Ricardo M. (G) 3. Silverio 88. Teixeira M. 14. Valente M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Faria B. ⚽,
8', 0 - 2, Faria B. ⚽,
36', Faria B. 🟨,
45', 0 - 3, Collard D. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 3, Batalha R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Bernardo J. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
60', Brazao D. ↓, Harramiz S. ↑,
62', Goba Zakpa ↓, Ribeiro S. ↑,
62', Joao Vasco ↓, Faria R. ↑,
68', Martins H. 🟨,
73', Santos T. ↓, Cardoso D. ↑,
74', Arsenio ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
74', Renato Luis ↓, Avto ↑,
84', Batalha R. ↓, Teixeira T. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches 1 Dezembro is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lusitânia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lusitânia will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	3:0 ✺
23.02.25	1 Dezembro - Amarante	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	3:1 ✺
09.02.25	Fafe - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLT
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
15.02.25	Lusitânia - Varzim	2:0 ✺
07.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
26.01.25	Trofense - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWLW

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