Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira (Alcochete)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Sporting Lisbon B		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	2.17	3.1	3.15
	2.31	3.2	3.28
	2.23	3.21	3.26	Watch
	2.22	3.04	3.13
	2.17	3.1	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.03)	3.13 ↓ (3.23)	3.19 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon B
41.6%

Draw
29.5%

1 Dezembro
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

28.5%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

27.6%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

1 Dezembro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Diego Callai (G) 43. Muniz J. 95. Taibo Dominguez L. 53. Dias R. 78. Couto M. 77. Besugo R. 88. Mendonca M. (C) 45. Moreira D. 58. Goncalves F. 86. Nel R. 90. Moreira A.	1. Oliveira G. (G) 13. Bernardo J. (C) 2. Cesinha 26. Freitas J. 33. Simoes T. 20. Silva R. 19. Valente A. 21. Isaac 6. Santos T. 11. Batalha R. 99. Pedro Clemente
Substitutes
67. Anjos L. 40. Arvelo A. 60. Balde A. . Camacho R. 79. Marques R. 13. Mota R. . Mota R. 99. Silva F. (G) 65. Silva G.	10. Araujo J. 25. Bonito D. 28. Brazao D. 9. Dener 12. Duarte F. (G) 14. Ebube 23. Lisandro Menezes 24. Roldan F. 5. Sousa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Nel R. ⚽,
23', Couto M. 🟨,
42', Isaac ↓, Brazao D. ↑,
43', Batalha R. 🟨,
45+6', Valente A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mendonca M. ↓, Anjos L. ↑,
46', Moreira A. ↓, Marques R. ↑,
47', Santos T. 🟨,
57', Marques R. 🟨,
60', Anjos L. 🟨,
62', Freitas J. 🟨,
63', Freitas J. 🟥,
72', 2 - 0, Couto M. ⚽,
74', Santos T. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
74', Batalha R. ↓, Dener ↑,
74', Silva R. ↓, Bonito D. ↑,
82', Dener 🟥,
86', Valente A. ↓, Ebube ↑,
88', Goncalves F. ↓, Balde A. ↑,
88', Nel R. ↓, Arvelo A. ↑,
89', 3 - 0, Oliveira G. (Own goal),
90+1', Couto M. ↓, Camacho R. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sporting B won 2.

Recent matches Sporting B is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

1 Dezembro is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sporting B will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Sporting B won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:2 (average 1.3:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting B won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	1:3 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético CP - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	SC Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:2 ✺
18.01.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTWTW
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
23.02.25	1 Dezembro - Amarante	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	1 Dezembro - Belenenses	3:1 ✺
09.02.25	Fafe - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
25.01.25	1 Dezembro - Caldas	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Académica Coimbra - 1 Dezembro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
12.01.25	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0
27.09.24	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	1:1
07.04.24	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	0:0
02.03.24	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	1:4
07.01.24	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	2:0
17.09.23	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1

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