Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 11

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo Conde de Sucena (Sintra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	1 Dezembro		Sporting Lisbon B

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.35
	2.95	3.2	2.23
	3.31	3.21	2.29
	3.09	3.16	2.35	Watch
	2.97	3.3	2.33	Watch
	2.85	3.2	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.67)	3.2 ↑ (3.06)	2.31 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

1 Dezembro
31.1%

Draw
28.9%

Sporting Lisbon B
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

29.9%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

29.6%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Sporting Lisbon B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Oliveira G. (G) 26. Freitas J. 2. Cesinha 32. Ramos P. 13. Bernardo J. 6. Santos T. 19. Valente A. 23. Lisandro Menezes 11. Batalha R. 99. Pedro Clemente 30. Aguas G.	41. Diego Callai (G) 45. Moreira D. 43. Muniz J. 53. Dias R. 55. Silva J. 73. Felicissimo E. 77. Besugo R. 76. Blopa S. 78. Couto M. 90. Moreira A. 88. Mendonca M.
Substitutes
10. Araujo J. 25. Bonito D. 79. Cardoso D. 18. Dias L. 12. Duarte F. (G) 17. Harramiz S. 21. Isaac 20. Silva R. 5. Sousa A.	80. Gomes L. 58. Goncalves F. 6. Kaua Oliveira 79. Marques R. 86. Nel R. 51. Pinto D. (G) 71. Santos D. 82. Silva G. 95. Taibo Dominguez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Cesinha 🟨,
32', Muniz J. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Besugo R. ⚽, Mendonca M. (A),
36', Freitas J. 🟨,
45+3', Diego Callai 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Santos T. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
62', Batalha R. ↓, Isaac ↑,
66', Besugo R. ↓, Kaua Oliveira ↑,
73', Blopa S. 🟨,
73', Aguas G. ↓, Cardoso D. ↑,
73', Pedro Clemente ↓, Harramiz S. ↑,
74', Moreira A. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
79', Blopa S. ↓, Taibo Dominguez L. ↑,
79', Mendonca M. ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,
85', Ramos P. ↓, Dias L. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Dias L. ⚽, Lisandro Menezes (A),
90+2', Valente A. 🟨,
90+6', Harramiz S. 🟨,
90+8', Bernardo J. 🟨,
90+8', Couto M. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches 1 Dezembro won 0.

1 Dezembro is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sporting B is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Sporting B have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 7 head-to-head matches 1 Dezembro won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2:11 (average 0.3:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams 1 Dezembro won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:5 (average 0.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
19.04.25	Amarante - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	1 Dezembro - Fafe	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Varzim - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLWLL
- Sporting Lisbon B
Portuguese Liga 3
20.04.25	Belenenses - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Amarante - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
17.03.25	Fulham U21 - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	3:0
12.01.25	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0
27.09.24	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	1:1
07.04.24	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	0:0
02.03.24	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	1:4
07.01.24	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	2:0
17.09.23	1 Dezembro - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1

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