Match Info

Date: 27 August 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer (Guayaquil)


	9 de Octubre		Emelec

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.2	1.98
	3.85	3.25	1.95
	3.35	3.25	2.01
	3.93	3.29	2.05
	3.6	3.1	2
	3.7	3.45	1.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (3.09)	3.28 ↓ (3.29)	2 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

9 de Octubre
25.3%

Draw
28.3%

Emelec
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

28.8%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

29.8%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

9 de Octubre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that 9 de Octubre's form might have worsened.

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Emelec's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	30%	30%

9 de Octubre - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. 9 de Octubre will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Emelec will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for 9 de Octubre: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 4).

Last 4 head-to-head matches 9 de Octubre won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Emelec could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently 9 de Octubre have a series of home games.

Emelec will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches 9 de Octubre won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-7.

Including matches at home between the teams 9 de Octubre won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Copa
17.08.22	9 de Octubre - Mushuc Runa	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.08.22	9 de Octubre - SD Aucas	1:2 ✺
08.08.22	Gualaceo - 9 de Octubre	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
04.08.22	9 de Octubre - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.08.22	9 de Octubre - Orense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLWT
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.08.22	LDU Quito - Emelec	2:0 ✺
06.08.22	Delfín - Emelec	0:3 ✺
31.07.22	Emelec - Gualaceo	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
26.07.22	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.07.22	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.04.22	Emelec - 9 de Octubre	2:1
21.08.21	9 de Octubre - Emelec	2:2
Ecuadorian Super Cup
19.06.21	Emelec - 9 de Octubre	0:2
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.03.21	Emelec - 9 de Octubre	0:1

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