Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 23

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Zambrano Y. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Emelec		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.10	3.00	3.10
	2.18	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.31	3.15	3.44
	2.23	3.15	3.37	Watch
	2.2	2.95	3.4
	2.25	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.38)	3.07 ↓ (3.2)	3.29 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
41.8%

Draw
30.1%

SD Aucas
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.8%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.3%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

Emelec - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Aucas will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valero M. (G) 80. Herrera O. 2. Leguizamon A. (C) 4. Segura E. 3. Guerrico I. 19. Ruiz J. 5. Mina A. 16. Quintero S. 15. Fragozo L. 21. Cevallos J. 7. Klimowicz L.	13. Piedra H. (C) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 2. Morales S. 28. Quinonez R. 6. Spina A. L. 57. Vera M. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 10. Preciado E. 29. Arroyo L.
Substitutes
17. Ayovi J. 18. Carabali M. 22. Castaneda E. (G) 6. Griffith V. 27. Leon F. 8. Napoli G. 25. Narvaez R. 10. Pizzini F. 28. Tobar B. 51. Valencia S. 24. Viteri A.	11. Bolanos R. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 63. Garcia A. 5. Serpa T. 14. Tapiero S.
Coaches
Nasuti C.	Araujo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Mina A. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Preciado E. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Arroyo L. 🟨,
56', Cevallos J. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
56', Mina A. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
60', Fragozo L. ↓, Ayovi J. ↑,
78', Klimowicz L. ↓, Viteri A. ↑,
79', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
79', Arroyo L. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Preciado E. ⚽, Guzman P. (A),
85', Leguizamon A. 🟨,
86', Preciado E. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
86', Vera M. ↓, Espinosa D. S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Emelec is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:20. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.1:0.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
27.07.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	2:1 ✺
23.07.26	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
19.07.26	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	6:1 ✺
16.07.26	Orense - Emelec	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTLWT
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.07.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Macará	1:4 ✺
23.07.26	Orense - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
19.07.26	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
16.07.26	SD Aucas - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
12.07.26	Deportivo Cuenca - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	SD Aucas - Emelec	2:0
22.11.25	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2
19.10.25	SD Aucas - Emelec	0:0
30.08.25	SD Aucas - Emelec	1:2
11.05.25	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:1
06.10.24	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:0
19.04.24	SD Aucas - Emelec	3:1

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