Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 2

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt (Guayaquil) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	16:30	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	16:30	Zapping Sports


	Guayaquil City		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.10	2.50	Watch
	2.70	2.95	2.37
	2.60	3.00	2.60	Watch
	2.97	3.15	2.71
	2.94	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.90	3.00	2.55
	2.81	3.11	2.56	Watch
	2.80	3.00	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.65)	3.05 ↑ (2.84)	2.53 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guayaquil City
33%

Draw
30.4%

Emelec
36.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.1%

31.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

33.7%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guayaquil City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Guayaquil City - Emelec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Pinos J. (G) 33. Caicedo R. 3. Rodriguez Y. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 6. Arias R. 14. Arroyo D. 20. Laurino S. 80. Gonzalez P. 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 21. Dorregaray D. 11. Mero E. (C)	12. Ortiz P. (G) 80. Herrera O. 27. Leon F. (C) 4. Segura E. 3. Guerrico I. 19. Ruiz J. 5. Mina A. 32. Valverde J. 59. Saya R. 9. Carrillo R. 11. Arce T.
Substitutes
31. Cabezas E. 7. Caicedo S. 70. Mancilla P. 1. Napa G. (G) 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 29. Quinonez J. 50. Rivadeneira F. 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.	17. Ayovi J. 26. Cuero I. 15. Fragozo L. 13. Gomez L. 6. Griffith V. 7. Klimowicz L. 30. Mina A. 8. Napoli G. 10. Pizzini F. 16. Quintero S. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G)
Coaches
Gavilanez P.	Medran E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
43', 0 - 1, Carrillo R. ⚽, Saya R. (A),
45+1', 0 - 2, Carrillo R. ⚽, Herrera O. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Laurino S. ↓, Mancilla P. ↑,
50', Arroyo D. 🟨,
53', Mina A. 🟨,
57', Carrillo R. 🟨,
62', 1 - 2, Dorregaray D. ⚽, Gonzalez P. (A),
71', 2 - 2, Dorregaray D. (Penalty Awarded),
72', Carrillo R. ↓, Klimowicz L. ↑,
72', Arce T. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
72', Gonzalez P. 🟨,
76', Guerrico I. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
76', Valverde J. ↓, Griffith V. ↑,
84', Arroyo D. ↓, Sambonino K. ↑,
90', Ayovi J. 🟥,
90+1', 3 - 2, Dorregaray D. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Ruiz J. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
90+4', Gonzalez P. ↓, Naula A. ↑,
90+8', Ladines Calvache E. P. ↓, Quinonez J. ↑,
90+8', Ayovi Caicedo J. J. ↓, Cabezas E. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guayaquil City won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Guayaquil City has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:29 (averaging 0.7:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guayaquil City against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 3:9 goals (averaging 0.3:1 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Guayaquil City - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.07%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.09.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guayaquil City - Mushuc Runa	3:1 ✺
07.09.26	Orense - Guayaquil City	4:3 ✺
02.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Guayaquil City - LDU Quito	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWLLW
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.09.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Macará - Emelec	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Emelec - Manta	1:0 ✺
03.09.26	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.08.26	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0
17.04.26	Emelec - Guayaquil City	1:3
Ecuadorian Copa
22.10.25	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:1 penalties
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.11.23	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0
29.05.23	Emelec - Guayaquil City	0:0
Club Friendly
11.02.23	Emelec - Guayaquil City	2:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.07.22	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0

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