Match Info

Serie B - Round 14

Date: 9 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer (Guayaquil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports


	9 de Octubre		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.90	2.87	4.00
	2.20	2.85	3.20
	1.97	2.86	4.25
	2.20	2.66	4.08	Watch
	1.91	2.80	4.20
	1.97	2.90	4.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.25)	2.82 ↓ (2.85)	3.96 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

9 de Octubre
44.9%

Draw
32.2%

Vinotinto
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

31.5%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

33.8%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

9 de Octubre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vinotinto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

9 de Octubre - Vinotinto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
87', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 3.

Recent performances by 9 de Octubre have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vinotinto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vinotinto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Vinotinto has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, 9 de Octubre won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, 9 de Octubre won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Vinotinto	29	13	9	7	37:22	15	48
4	Nueve de Octubre	29	11	12	6	31:21	10	45

Last Results with these Odds

9 de Octubre - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.94%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Vinotinto - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 28.53%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
03.06.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	9 de Octubre - Cuenca Juniors	3:3 ✺
25.05.26	Independiente Juniors - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
22.05.26	9 de Octubre - Manta	0:1 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
17.05.26	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TTTLW
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Serie B
04.06.26	Vinotinto - Cumbayá	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Vinotinto - Atlético Rojiblanco	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
27.05.26	Vinotinto - Orense	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Serie B
23.05.26	LDU Portoviejo - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
14.05.26	Vinotinto - Cuenca Juniors	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
08.04.26	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	0:1
16.10.24	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	5:2
01.09.24	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	3:2
05.06.24	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	3:1
10.04.24	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	1:0
20.09.23	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	1:2
01.08.23	Vinotinto - 9 de Octubre	4:0

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