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Current Win Probability
ACR Messina 12.5%
Draw 22.1%
Avellino 65.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
19.7%
25.5%
54.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
19.5%
25.2%
55.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
ACR Messina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that ACR Messina's form might have worsened.
Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Avellino's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for ACR Messina than the current prediction. (+7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ACR Messina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-10%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Avellino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
ACR Messina - Avellino Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Meli G. (G) 14. Gyamfi B. 6. Gelli J. 15. Marino A. 44. Dumbravanu D. 16. Petrucci D. 37. Buchel M. 23. Crimi M. (C) 77. Dell'Aquila F. 90. Costantino R. 11. Tordini M.
1. Iannarilli A. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 5. Rigione M. 56. Enrici P. 23. Cagnano A. 8. Rocca M. 6. Palmiero L. 24. Sounas D. 7. D'Ausilio M. 32. Lescano F. 9. Patierno C.
Substitutes
31. Anzelmo D. 1. Curtosi F. (G) 9. De Sena C. 4. Garofalo V. 20. Haveri K. 7. Lia D. 18. Luciani P. 40. Morichelli R. 28. Pedicillo L. 30. Vicario J.
21. Armellino M. 26. Cionek T. 38. Frascatore P. 77. Marson L. (G) 55. Mutanda N. 20. Palumbo M. 91. Panico G. 10. Russo R. 2. Todisco G. 19. Tribuzzi A. 35. Zuberek J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Buchel M. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Sounas D. ⚽,
45+3', Tordini M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Rocca M. 🟨,
54', D'Ausilio M. 🟨,
59', Rocca M. ↓, Panico G. ↑,
59', Buchel M. ↓, Garofalo V. ↑,
59', Petrucci D. ↓, Vicario J. ↑,
64', Palmiero L. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
65', Lescano F. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
73', Dell'Aquila F. ↓, Pedicillo L. ↑,
73', Costantino R. ↓, De Sena C. ↑,
73', Panico G. 🟨,
80', Sounas D. ↓, Armellino M. ↑,
84', Tordini M. ↓, Luciani P. ↑,
90+3', Luciani P. 🟨,
90+6', 🟥,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (Quarter~finals)).
Last 5 head-to-head matches ACR Messina won 3.
Recent matches ACR Messina is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Avellino is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
In this match Avellino is certain favorite.
There will not play in ACR Messina: Chiarella M.
(Inactive)
Ingrosso G.
(Injury)
Lia D.
(Injury)
Mame Ass N.
(Injury)
There will not play in Avellino: Aya R.
(Knee Injury)
Campanile A.
(Calf Injury)
Frascatore P.
(Muscle Injury)
Mutanda N.
(Muscle Injury)
Last 7 head-to-head matches ACR Messina won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:10 (average 0.9:1.4).
Including matches at home between the teams ACR Messina won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1:0.3).
Italy
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Meli G. (G) 
Gyamfi B. 
Dumbravanu D. 
Buchel M. 
Sounas D. 
Lescano F. 
Haveri K. 
Vicario J. 
Cionek T. 
Palumbo M. 
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