Match Info

Serie C - Play Out - Final

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio San Filippo (Messina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251


	ACR Messina		Foggia

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.4	4.33
	1.73	3.65	4.4
	1.72	3.76	4.59
	1.72	3.62	4.8
	1.68	3.48	4.63
	1.73	3.65	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.95)	3.59 ↑ (3.44)	4.53 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ACR Messina
54%

Draw
25.6%

Foggia
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

27.2%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

26.6%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ACR Messina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ACR Messina's performance.

Foggia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ACR Messina than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Foggia than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ACR Messina - Foggia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Krapikas T. (G) 7. Lia D. 6. Gelli J. 44. Dumbravanu D. 20. Haveri K. 4. Garofalo V. 23. Crimi M. 37. Buchel M. 16. Petrucci D. (C) 11. Tordini M. 18. Luciani P.	1. Perina P. (G) 31. Salines E. 19. Dutu E. 3. Felicioli G. 32. Parodi G. 47. Pazienza O. 17. Tascone S. 10. Gala A. 7. Zunno M. 24. Touho M. 23. Sarr A. M.
Substitutes
31. Anzelmo D. 24. Chiarella M. 90. Costantino R. 77. Dell'Aquila F. 9. De Sena C. 3. Ingrosso G. 27. Mameli B. 15. Marino A. 22. Meli G. (G) 40. Morichelli R. 28. Pedicillo L. 30. Vicario J.	37. Brugognone G. 20. Da Riva J. 12. De Simone L. (G) 90. Emmausso M. 97. Kiyine S. 13. Marzupio M. 4. Mazzocco D. 11. Orlando F. 9. Santaniello E. 2. Silvestro A. 45. Spano 77. Testa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Sarr A. M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Tordini M. 🟨,
60', Petrucci D. ↓, Dell'Aquila F. ↑,
62', Touho M. ↓, Emmausso M. ↑,
73', Lia D. 🟨,
73', Gala A. 🟨,
76', Gala A. ↓, Kiyine S. ↑,
76', Pazienza O. ↓, Mazzocco D. ↑,
76', Salines E. ↓, Silvestro A. ↑,
79', Tordini M. ↓, Costantino R. ↑,
87', Garofalo V. ↓, Chiarella M. ↑,
88', Buchel M. 🟨,
90+2', Mazzocco D. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ACR Messina won 1.

ACR Messina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Foggia is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Foggia has had a series of away games.

In this match, ACR Messina is considered a favorite.

We predict that ACR Messina will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, ACR Messina won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 10:33. (average 0.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, ACR Messina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.6:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ACR Messina
Italian Serie C Group C
27.04.25	ACR Messina - Juventus U23	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Foggia - ACR Messina	1:2 ✺
06.04.25	Sorrento - ACR Messina	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	ACR Messina - Altamura	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Giugliano - ACR Messina	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.9 WWLWW
- Foggia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group C
27.04.25	Picerno - Foggia	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Foggia - ACR Messina	1:2 ✺
14.04.25	Crotone - Foggia	3:2 ✺
29.03.25	Casertana - Foggia	4:0 ✺
22.03.25	Juventus U23 - Foggia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
19.04.25	Foggia - ACR Messina	1:2
07.12.24	ACR Messina - Foggia	0:3
23.03.24	ACR Messina - Foggia	0:3
19.11.23	Foggia - ACR Messina	2:0
02.04.23	ACR Messina - Foggia	0:1
30.11.22	Foggia - ACR Messina	1:0
12.02.22	ACR Messina - Foggia	1:1

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