Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 35

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani (Potenza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255


	Sorrento		ACR Messina

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.2	3.6
	1.96	3.4	3.65
	1.99	3.42	3.72
	1.91	3.1	4
	1.91	3.26	3.72	Watch
	1.96	3.4	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.32)	3.3 ↑ (3.15)	3.72 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sorrento
47.5%

Draw
27.9%

ACR Messina
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

29.2%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28.4%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sorrento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sorrento's performance.

ACR Messina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and ACR Messina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sorrento than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sorrento that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ACR Messina than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ACR Messina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sorrento - ACR Messina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. ACR Messina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Del Sorbo L. (G) 33. Vitiello A. 6. Fusco F. 9. Blondett E. 3. Colombini L. 8. Cuccurullo M. 26. Di Somma V. 72. Palella A. 7. Guadagni G. 11. Musso A. 99. Rossetti M.	12. Krapikas T. (G) 14. Gyamfi B. 44. Dumbravanu D. 3. Ingrosso G. 6. Gelli J. 26. Petrucci D. 23. Crimi M. 4. Garofalo V. 28. Pedicillo L. 18. Luciani P. 11. Tordini M.
Substitutes
4. Biagetti C. 23. Cangianiello S. 32. Colangiuli V. 96. Esposito M. 19. Guarracino M. 12. Harrasser S. 44. Lops F. 20. Matera A. 28. Morleo U. 18. Polidori A. 17. Riccardi P. 16. Scala S.	31. Anzelmo D. 24. Chiarella M. 90. Costantino R. 77. Dell'Aquila F. 9. De Sena C. 7. Lia D. 27. Mameli B. 15. Marino A. 22. Meli G. (G) 30. Vicario J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Gelli J. 🟨,
45+1', Crimi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ingrosso G. ↓, Vicario J. ↑,
46', Palella A. ↓, Cangianiello S. ↑,
54', 1 - 0, Rossetti M. ⚽,
55', Pedicillo L. 🟨,
58', Rossetti M. ↓, Scala S. ↑,
58', Pedicillo L. ↓, Lia D. ↑,
63', Musso A. ↓, Polidori A. ↑,
63', Colombini L. ↓, Biagetti C. ↑,
65', Petrucci D. ↓, Dell'Aquila F. ↑,
67', Cangianiello S. 🟨,
70', 1 - 1, Luciani P. ⚽,
85', Cuccurullo M. 🟥,
86', Guadagni G. ↓, Matera A. ↑,
88', Garofalo V. ↓, Chiarella M. ↑,
90', Di Somma V. 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Di Somma V. ⚽,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Sorrento has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches ACR Messina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sorrento could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Sorrento is a favorite.

There will not play in Sorrento: Bolsius D. (Knee Injury) Panico C. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in ACR Messina: Curtosi F. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sorrento won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:6 (average 0.6:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Sorrento won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sorrento FC
Italian Serie C Group C
29.03.25	Picerno - Sorrento	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Sorrento - Latina	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Casertana - Sorrento	4:0 ✺
12.03.25	Sorrento - Juventus U23	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Foggia - Sorrento	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LTLLL
- ACR Messina
Italian Serie C Group C
29.03.25	ACR Messina - Altamura	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Giugliano - ACR Messina	2:3 ✺
16.03.25	ACR Messina - Catania	0:1 ✺
12.03.25	Cavese - ACR Messina	3:3 ✺
08.03.25	ACR Messina - Avellino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
24.11.24	ACR Messina - Sorrento	0:1
14.02.24	ACR Messina - Sorrento	2:0
08.10.23	Sorrento - ACR Messina	1:0
Italian Lega Pro C2/B
13.04.14	ACR Messina - Sorrento	1:0
08.12.13	Sorrento - ACR Messina	1:3

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