Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Referee: Espinoza J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	ADT Tarma		Escuela Municipal Binacional

	1	X	2
	1.27	5.25	11	Watch
	1.43	4.2	5.75
	1.27	5.85	9.7	Watch
	1.29	4.85	11.86	Watch
	1.44	4.2	5.8
	1.27	5.25	11	Watch
	1.27	5.85	9.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.64)	5.06 ↑ (3.9)	9.26 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
71.3%

Draw
18.6%

Escuela Municipal Binacional
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

24.3%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23.2%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ADT Tarma's performance.

Escuela Municipal Binacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Escuela Municipal Binacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ADT Tarma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Escuela Municipal Binacional than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Escuela Municipal Binacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

ADT Tarma - Escuela Municipal Binacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. ADT will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Binacional (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Binacional (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Hermoza E. (G) 23. Montenegro D. 16. Choi G. 3. Narvaez J. 6. Bersano F. 88. Barreto G. 29. Robles A. 7. Rojas J. 10. Cedron V. (C) 18. Pinto O. 9. Rengifo H.	21. Azurin A. (C) 14. Rasmussen M. 2. Rodriguez N. 15. Leon B. 13. Gutierrez A. 6. Duque L. 28. Chavez E. 10. Torres R. 7. Carranza J. 11. Chavez D. 20. Torres M.
Substitutes
15. Alvino J. 77. Da Luz M. 1. Grados C. (G) 27. Hidalgo A. 8. Moyano A. 22. Reyes J.	27. Aguinaga A. 24. Ayqque J. 22. Flores F. 23. Magallanes A. 25. Meza C. 1. Montalvo D. (G) 16. Revilla J. 8. Tello Y. 4. Timana H.
Coaches
Desio C.	Chavez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Duque L. ⚽,
18', Narvaez J. 🟨,
37', Gutierrez A. ↓, Aguinaga A. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Torres R. ↓, Meza C. ↑,
55', Torres M. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Rengifo H. ⚽, Rojas J. (A),
62', Torres M. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
62', Rasmussen M. ↓, Timana H. ↑,
63', Pinto O. ↓, Da Luz M. ↑,
73', Rojas J. ↓, Hidalgo A. ↑,
75', Narvaez J. 🟨,
83', Robles A. ↓, Alvino J. ↑,
83', Barreto G. ↓, Moyano A. ↑,
84', Montenegro D. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
89', Chavez E. ↓, Magallanes A. ↑,
90+2', Carranza J. 🟨,
90+7', Moyano A. 🟥,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 6 and 14).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

In this match ADT is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in ADT: Ascues C. (Muscle Injury) Da Luz M. (Muscle Injury) Desio G. (Knee Injury) Fernandez A. (Injury) Fuentes P. (Injury) Perez A. (Injury) Vidales J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Binacional: Crespo H. (Red Card)

Last 4 head-to-head matches ADT won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:1 (average 1:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams ADT won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0 (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
05.04.25	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0 ✺
29.03.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	3:0 ✺
08.03.25	Sport Huancayo - ADT Tarma	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	1:2 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.25	ADT Tarma - Sport Boys	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLLT
- Escuela Municipal Binacional
Peruvian Liga 1
04.04.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Ayacucho	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Sporting Cristal - Escuela Municipal Binacional	5:0 ✺
10.03.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Juan Pablo II College	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Alianza Atlético - Escuela Municipal Binacional	4:1 ✺
24.02.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Cusco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
01.07.23	ADT Tarma - Escuela Municipal Binacional	2:0
12.05.23	Escuela Municipal Binacional - ADT Tarma	1:0
31.07.22	ADT Tarma - Escuela Municipal Binacional	1:0
07.03.22	Escuela Municipal Binacional - ADT Tarma	0:1

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