Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	ADT Tarma		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.9	2.5	Watch
	3.35	2.7	2.45	Watch
	3.12	2.95	2.47
	3.02	3.04	2.48	Watch
	3	2.88	2.45
	3.09	2.98	2.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.8)	2.91 ↓ (3.1)	2.47 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
30.2%

Draw
32%

Alianza Lima
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

29.5%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

29.1%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

The chances for Alianza Lima have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	22.2%	77.8%

ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Lima: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Valencia J. (G) 13. Gomez L. 23. Narvaez J. 28. Soto J. 20. Gutierrez A. 16. Perez L. 15. Alvino J. 10. Cedron V. (C) 21. Benites Vargas L. E. 7. Rojas J. 32. Bauman J.	1. Duarte A. (G) 17. Advincula L. 4. Chavez G. 6. Garces R. (C) 3. Antoni M. 13. Huaman M. 20. Velez J. 5. Pavez E. 15. Castillo J. 9. Ramos L. 8. Castillo E.
Substitutes
4. Biojo R. 25. Garcia S. 8. Guivin Tanta J. 6. Ojeda A. 37. Rengifo N. 22. Rodriguez A. 3. Rugel L. 33. Solis C. (G) 5. Vega J.	11. Cantero A. 77. Estrada J. 7. Gaibor F. 32. Garcia J. 25. Gentile G. 99. Girotti F. 34. Paolo Guerrero 27. Quevedo K. 23. Viscarra G. (G)
Coaches
Trobbiani P.	Guede P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Castillo J. 🟨,
22', Antoni M. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Pavez E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gutierrez A. ↓, Ojeda A. ↑,
46', Benites Vargas L. E. ↓, Guivin Tanta J. ↑,
59', Alvino J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
61', Soto J. 🟨,
71', Ramos L. ↓, Girotti F. ↑,
73', Gomez L. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
78', Castillo E. ↓, Gentile G. ↑,
87', Perez L. ↓, Rengifo N. ↑,
89', Velez J. ↓, Estrada J. ↑,
90', Rodriguez A. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2.

ADT has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alianza Lima is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alianza Lima could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in ADT: Arakaki H. (Injury) Cabello C. (Red Card) Mazzo A. (Red Card) Narvaez J. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, ADT won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, ADT won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Alianza Lima	10	4	4	2	14:10	4	16
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
03.04.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	3:2 ✺
20.03.26	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Sport Huancayo - ADT Tarma	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	ADT Tarma - Juan Pablo II College	2:3 ✺
27.02.26	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LTWLT
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
04.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Alianza Lima - Juan Pablo II College	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
09.03.26	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
28.02.26	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
16.08.25	Alianza Lima - ADT Tarma	3:1
29.03.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	3:0
10.08.24	Alianza Lima - ADT Tarma	0:0
01.03.24	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	2:0
21.10.23	Alianza Lima - ADT Tarma	0:0
02.06.23	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	2:1
30.10.22	Alianza Lima - ADT Tarma	2:0

Upcoming Matches