Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Referee: Rivera J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz
Vietnam	TV 360


	ADT Tarma		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.60	2.10	Watch
	3.10	3.40	1.98
	3.60	3.60	1.98	Watch
	3.38	3.66	2.09
	2.97	3.5	2.24	Watch
	3.30	3.40	2.06
	3.19	3.59	2.10	Watch
	3.10	3.45	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↑ (2.77)	3.53 ↑ (3.4)	2.08 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
28.8%

Draw
26.4%

Cienciano
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

27.3%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

27.5%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cienciano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cienciano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	13%	87%

ADT Tarma - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 20 - 87%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cienciano: 73.3% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Cienciano (2.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cienciano will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cienciano (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Solis C. (G) 98. Ramos A. 99. Pereyra J. 44. Benincasa H. 59. Nunez O. 6. Ojeda A. 23. Narvaez J. 22. Rodriguez A. 7. Rojas J. (C) 77. Lucumi J. 32. Bauman J.	1. Falcon G. (G) 13. Nunez C. 4. Amondarain M. 3. Becerra K. 16. Martinich M. 88. Barreto G. 29. Robles A. 7. Souza Espana C. 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 11. Bandiera N. 21. Garces C. (C)
Substitutes
29. Garcia E. 26. Garcilazo J. 27. Hidalgo A. 18. Mazzo A. 31. Navarro J. 2. Reyes J. 50. Riveros O. 3. Rugel L. 30. Valencia J. (G)	26. Aguilar R. 8. Aguirre G. 39. Caparo H. 14. Cavero S. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 18. La Torre D. 17. Sandoval R. 19. Succar M. 27. Yovera A.
Coaches
Rivera V.	Melgarejo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Nunez O. 🟨,
39', Arias Fierro S. D. 🟨,
40', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Becerra K. ⚽, Bandiera N. (A),
45+4', Barreto G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Bauman J. ↓, Garcilazo J. ↑,
54', Ojeda A. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
57', Nunez C. 🟨,
60', Benincasa H. 🟨,
67', 1 - 1, Narvaez J. ⚽, Rojas J. (A),
72', Arias Fierro S. D. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
80', Martinich M. ↓, Cavero S. ↑,
83', Bandiera N. ↓, Sandoval R. ↑,
86', Rojas J. ↓, Riveros O. ↑,
88', Cavero S. 🟨,
90', 2 - 1, Narvaez J. ⚽, Ramos A. (A),
90+5', Rodriguez A. ↓, Navarro J. ↑,
90+5', Lucumi J. ↓, Rugel L. ↑,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 18th and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ADT won 2.

Recent results have been tough for ADT (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Cienciano has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

ADT could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Cienciano is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for ADT: Perez L. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for ADT: Rodriguez A. (Injury).

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, ADT has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:17 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for ADT against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 6:8 goals (averaging 1.2:1.6 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	14:18	-4	11
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Last Results with these Odds

ADT Tarma - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 33.52%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
18.09.26	Alianza Lima - ADT Tarma	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	3:0 ✺
30.08.26	ADT Tarma - Sport Huancayo	1:3 ✺
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
27.08.26	ADT Tarma - Moquegua	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
22.08.26	Juan Pablo II College - ADT Tarma	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWL
- Cienciano
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Cienciano	3:0 ✺
10.09.26	Cienciano - Montevideo City Torque	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
04.09.26	Cajamarca - Cienciano	2:5 ✺
30.08.26	Cienciano - Cusco	1:2 ✺
23.08.26	Sport Boys - Cienciano	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Copa de la Liga
10.07.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	2:3
Peruvian Liga 1
03.04.26	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	3:2
19.07.25	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.25	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	1:2 penalties
Peruvian Liga 1
09.02.25	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	2:2
21.07.24	Cienciano - ADT Tarma	0:1
03.02.24	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	1:1

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