Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA) (Arequipa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	FBC Melgar		ADT Tarma

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.46	4.10	5.50
	1.43	4.2	7	Watch
	1.43	4.75	7.81
	1.45	4.09	7.58	Watch
	1.4	3.85	7.65
	1.42	4.15	7.8	Watch
	1.38	4.5	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.34)	4.27 ↓ (4.8)	7.06 ↓ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
65.2%

Draw
21.7%

ADT Tarma
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

19.3%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.7%

18.3%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FBC Melgar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 3. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 24. Tandazo W. 25. Minda K. 7. Bordacahar C. 10. Quagliata N. 11. Vidales J. 9. Cuesta B. (C)	33. Solis C. (G) 98. Ramos A. 28. Soto J. 99. Pereyra J. 59. Nunez O. 44. Benincasa H. 16. Perez L. 77. Lucumi J. 80. Canela Torres J. J. 7. Rojas J. (C) 32. Bauman J.
Substitutes
12. Caceda C. (G) 16. Caceres J. 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 90. Jesus Alcantar 26. Portillo M. 77. Zanelatto F. 45. Zegarra M.	10. Cedron V. 26. Garcilazo J. 18. Mazzo A. 31. Navarro J. 24. Peralta S. 9. Rengifo H. 2. Reyes J. 3. Rugel L. 30. Valencia J. (G)
Coaches
Rondelli M.	Cahuas J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Cuesta B. ⚽, Cabanillas N. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', 2 - 0, Cuesta B. ⚽, Quagliata N. (A),
68', Cuesta B. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
73', Rojas J. ↓, Peralta S. ↑,
73', Bauman J. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,
73', Lucumi J. ↓, Mazzo A. ↑,
75', Cabanillas N. ↓, Jesus Alcantar ↑,
75', Bordacahar C. ↓, Zanelatto F. ↑,
75', Quagliata N. ↓, Portillo M. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Jesus Alcantar ⚽,
83', Canela Torres J. J. ↓, Garcilazo J. ↑,
83', Benincasa H. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
84', Minda K. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
86', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
87', Rondelli M. 🟨,
89', Rengifo H. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Melgar is the obvious favorite.

There are questionable in ADT: Rodriguez A. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:6. (average 2.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:1. (average 3.5:0.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
01.09.26	Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Los Chankas - FBC Melgar	0:3 ✺
09.08.26	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	2:4 ✺
02.08.26	Moquegua - FBC Melgar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTWLT
- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
30.08.26	ADT Tarma - Sport Huancayo	1:3 ✺
Peruvian Copa de la Liga
27.08.26	ADT Tarma - Moquegua	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
22.08.26	Juan Pablo II College - ADT Tarma	5:1 ✺
15.08.26	ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Cajamarca - ADT Tarma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
20.03.26	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1
24.08.25	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	2:2
05.04.25	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0
16.08.24	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1
09.03.24	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	3:1
22.06.23	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0
26.03.23	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	0:0

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