Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play
World	Fanatiz


	ADT Tarma		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	1.13	8.5	15	Watch
	1.14	7.5	12
	1.11	8.6	21	Watch
	1.12	8.77	23.93
	1.11	8.28	24.55	Watch
	1.1	8	15
	1.15	8.6	17	Watch
	1.11	8.6	21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.12 ↓ (1.34)	8.36 ↑ (5.1)	18.69 ↑ (8.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
83.7%

Draw
11.2%

Unión Comercio
5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.3%

18.5%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

18%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ADT Tarma's performance.

Unión Comercio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Unión Comercio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ADT Tarma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Comercio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

ADT Tarma - Unión Comercio Predictions

Users Predictions: ADT Tarma will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Diaz P. (G) 23. Narvaez J. 2. Vilchez Y. 24. Rambal A. 29. Falconi J. 6. Perez L. 5. Alvarez L. 3. Inga C. 12. Rojas J. 10. Cedron V. (C) 20. Beto S.	12. Diaz W. (G) 17. Vargas D. 44. Melendez Huayanay F. J. 3. Paredes T. 34. Aranda S. 29. Zeta H. (C) 5. Sanchez K. 30. Torres J. 42. Espinoza P. 24. Javier Navea 22. Marines D.
Substitutes
7. Aubert E. 14. Gonzales J. 1. Hermoza E. (G) 8. Palomino J. 89. Posito J. 11. Quinonez A. 9. Rengifo H. 28. Soto J. 4. Vega R.	7. Carranza M. 36. Ferreyra K. 10. Hernan Perez 76. Jimenez J. 15. Jimenez O. 21. Luque Rios J. 73. Rios D.
Coaches
Biaggio C.	Russo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', Rambal A. 🟨,
57', Diaz P. 🟨,
59', Zeta H. (Pen),
60', Falconi J. ↓, Rengifo H. ↑,
64', Zeta H. ↓, Rios D. ↑,
66', Alvarez L. ↓, Quinonez A. ↑,
73', Cedron V. ↓, Posito J. ↑,
73', Beto S. ↓, Gonzales J. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Posito J. ⚽, Inga C. (A),
81', Torres J. ↓, Ferreyra K. ↑,
85', 2 - 0, Rengifo H. ⚽, Inga C. (A),
88', Sanchez K. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
88', Javier Navea ↓, Carranza M. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 18).

ADT has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Unión Comercio is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match ADT is indisputable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches ADT won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:6 (average 2.7:2).

Including matches at home between the teams ADT won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
19.10.24	Universitario de Deportes - ADT Tarma	2:1 ✺
28.09.24	ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético	0:1 ✺
22.09.24	Universidad César Vallejo - ADT Tarma	0:0 ✺
17.09.24	ADT Tarma - Cusco	1:2 ✺
13.09.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - ADT Tarma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLTLL
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
17.10.24	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	3:2 ✺
27.09.24	Unión Comercio - Sport Boys	0:2 ✺
22.09.24	Universitario de Deportes - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
19.09.24	Unión Comercio - Alianza Atlético	1:2 ✺
13.09.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.24	Unión Comercio - ADT Tarma	2:2
08.10.23	ADT Tarma - Unión Comercio	3:0
28.05.23	Unión Comercio - ADT Tarma	4:3

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