Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 17 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play
World	Fanatiz


	Unión Comercio		Comerciantes Unidos

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.9	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.4
	2.05	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.06	3.4	3.63
	2.06	3.25	3.67	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.5
	2.12	3.41	3.62	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.35)	3.32 ↑ (3.26)	3.59 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
45.9%

Draw
28.1%

Comerciantes Unidos
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

28.9%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

28.9%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Comercio's performance.

Comerciantes Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Unión Comercio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Unión Comercio will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Comerciantes Unidos will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Unión Comercio: 17% – 68.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diaz W. (G) 15. Jimenez O. 44. Melendez F. 3. Paredes T. 34. Aranda S. 17. Vargas D. 24. Javier Navea 5. Sanchez K. 30. Torres J. 26. Tandazo J. 29. Zeta H. (C)	21. Campos D. (G) 26. Toledo J. 16. Bosmediano J. 31. Caballero E. 13. Caro D. 73. Dioses D. 6. Paico K. 14. Palacio D. 23. Magallanes P. 40. Regalado I. 9. Sen M. (C)
Substitutes
7. Carranza M. 42. Espinoza P. 36. Ferreyra K. 90. Jimenez J. 21. Luque Rios J. 22. Marines D. 73. Rios D.	19. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 27. Barrios K. 28. Garcia L. (G) 11. Gonzales S. 3. Guadalupe Q. 20. Parodi J. 25. Paucar E. 18. Pinto O.
Coaches
Russo A.	Silvestri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Tandazo J. ⚽, Torres J. (A),
42', Paico K. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Magallanes P. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Regalado I. ↓, Pinto O. ↑,
46', Jimenez O. ↓, Marines D. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Sen M. ⚽, Pinto O. (A),
55', 2 - 2, Javier Navea ⚽, Zeta H. (A),
59', Torres J. ↓, Espinoza P. ↑,
65', 3 - 2, Javier Navea (Pen),
67', Toledo J. ↓, Barrios K. ↑,
68', Paico K. ↓, Gonzales S. ↑,
68', Tandazo J. ↓, Rios D. ↑,
78', Bosmediano J. ↓, Guadalupe Q. ↑,
80', Zeta H. 🟨,
87', Magallanes P. ↓, Parodi J. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 3.

Unión Comercio has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Comerciantes Unidos is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Unión Comercio will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Unión Comercio won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24:14 (average 2:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Unión Comercio won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 17:4 (average 2.8:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
27.09.24	Unión Comercio - Sport Boys	0:2 ✺
22.09.24	Universitario de Deportes - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
19.09.24	Unión Comercio - Alianza Atlético	1:2 ✺
13.09.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
01.09.24	Unión Comercio - Atlético Grau	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
29.09.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Universitario de Deportes	0:2 ✺
23.09.24	Alianza Atlético - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0 ✺
18.09.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Universidad César Vallejo	2:0 ✺
14.09.24	Cusco - Comerciantes Unidos	2:1 ✺
07.09.24	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
04.05.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	3:1
Peruvian Liga 2
18.09.22	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	4:0
18.06.22	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	2:3
20.08.21	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	4:0
03.06.21	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	1:1
05.11.20	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1
Peruvian Liga 1
27.10.18	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	2:2

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