Match Info

Super League - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: AEL FC Arena (Larissa)

Referee: Moschou D. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 7
Australia	SportPlus
Croatia	SportKlub 8
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Serbia	SportKlub 8
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
Usa	SportPlus


	AEL Larissa		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.2	1.45	Watch
	7.6	4.6	1.41
	6.78	4.34	1.5
	5.09	3.07	1.83	Watch
	8.3	4.5	1.41	Watch
	7	4.5	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.88 ↓ (8.9)	4.2 ↓ (4.73)	1.5 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEL Larissa
13.9%

Draw
22.7%

AEK Athens
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.5%

19.8%

69.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10%

18.9%

72.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEL Larissa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Athens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEL Larissa than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Athens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

AEL Larissa - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Larissa will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). AEK will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Melissas N. (G) 64. Deligiannidis P. 44. Chakla S. 6. Pantelakis E. 63. Kovacevic B. 11. Mourgos S. 8. Perez F. 31. Atanasov J. 19. Pasas G. (C) 25. Sagal A. 29. Tupta L.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. (C) 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 19. Eliasson N. 18. Marin R. 13. Pineda O. 7. Kutesa D. 11. Koita A. 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
94. Anagnostopoulos A. (G) 2. Apostolakis K. 5. Bagalianis P. 18. Chatzistravos Z. 23. Garate L. 77. Giousis C. 12. Kossonou A. 22. Papageorgiou A. 90. Sourlis V. 26. Staikos P. 73. Varsamis V. 7. Warda A.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 55. Chrysopoulos K. 4. Grujic M. 10. Joao Mario 17. Kaloskamis D. 23. Ljubicic R. 20. Mantalos P. 28. Odubajo M. 29. Penrice J. 14. Pierrot F. 21. Vida D.
Coaches
Petrakis G.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Atanasov J. 🟨,
45+2', Pasas G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mourgos S. ↓, Giousis C. ↑,
54', Eliasson N. ↓, Mantalos P. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Mantalos P. ⚽, Pilios S. (A),
61', Perez F. 🟨,
64', Pasas G. ↓, Garate L. ↑,
66', Pantelakis E. 🟨,
71', Tupta L. ↓, Warda A. ↑,
71', Kovacevic B. ↓, Kossonou A. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Chakla S. ⚽, Atanasov J. (A),
76', Kutesa D. ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
77', Marin R. ↓, Pierrot F. ↑,
81', Sagal A. ↓, Bagalianis P. ↑,
84', Pilios S. ↓, Penrice J. ↑,
84', Koita A. ↓, Kaloskamis D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 1.

Larissa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AEK is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Larissa has had a series of away games.

In this match, AEK is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 7:27. (average 0.5:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Larissa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEL Larissa
Greek Cup
17.09.25	Marko - AEL Larissa	2:2 ✺
Greek Super League
14.09.25	Asteras Tripolis - AEL Larissa	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	AEL Larissa - AE Kifisia	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	PAOK - AEL Larissa	1:0 ✺
Greek Cup
19.08.25	Kalamata - AEL Larissa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTTLW
- AEK Athens
Greek Cup
17.09.25	Egaleo - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Greek Super League
14.09.25	Levadiakos - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	AEK Athens - Asteras Tripolis	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	AEK Athens - Anderlecht	2:0 ✺
Greek Super League
24.08.25	AEK Athens - Panserraikos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
15.02.21	AEL Larissa - AEK Athens	2:4
22.11.20	AEK Athens - AEL Larissa	4:1
19.01.20	AEK Athens - AEL Larissa	3:0
05.10.19	AEL Larissa - AEK Athens	0:0
21.04.19	AEK Athens - AEL Larissa	0:1
16.12.18	AEL Larissa - AEK Athens	0:0
Greek Cup
18.04.18	AEK Athens - AEL Larissa	1:0

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