Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Shabana		Tusker

	1	X	2
	2.48	2.72	2.92
	2.6	2.68	2.99	Watch
	2.5	2.5	2.9
	2.52	2.98	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.1)	2.72 ↓ (3.04)	2.92 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shabana
35.8%

Draw
33.2%

Tusker
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

30.1%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29.1%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shabana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shabana's form might have worsened.

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shabana than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shabana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tusker, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Shabana - Tusker Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 and 9).

Shabana is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tusker's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Shabana might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shabana won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Shabana won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Shabana	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shabana FC
Kenyan Premier League
14.02.26	Posta Rangers - Shabana	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Shabana - Bandari	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	APS Bomet - Shabana	3:3 ✺
17.01.26	Shabana - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Shabana - Gor Mahia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWTWT
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
14.02.26	Mathare United - Tusker	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Tusker - Posta Rangers	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Kenya CB - Tusker	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Tusker - Bandari	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Tusker - AFC Leopards	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
05.10.25	Tusker - Shabana	1:1
26.02.25	Tusker - Shabana	1:1
11.01.25	Shabana - Tusker	2:1
11.02.24	Shabana - Tusker	0:4
06.10.23	Tusker - Shabana	0:1

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