Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday


	Kariobangi Sharks		Tusker

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.62	2.38
	3.36	2.52	2.53
	3.31	2.57	2.49	Watch
	3.2	2.45	2.45
	3.37	2.49	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.69)	2.53 ↓ (2.8)	2.47 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kariobangi Sharks
27.5%

Draw
35.8%

Tusker
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

32.7%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

33.9%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kariobangi Sharks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kariobangi Sharks's form might have worsened.

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kariobangi Sharks than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kariobangi Sharks, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Kariobangi Sharks - Tusker Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Oduor F. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
78', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kariobangi Sharks won 2.

Kariobangi Sharks is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tusker has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Kariobangi Sharks won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kariobangi Sharks won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.9:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Tusker	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Kariobangi Sharks - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.03%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kariobangi Sharks
Kenyan Premier League
26.02.26	APS Bomet - Kariobangi Sharks	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Mathare United	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Kenya CB - Kariobangi Sharks	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Kariobangi Sharks - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Bandari - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WTTWT
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
25.02.26	Tusker - Muranga Seal	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Shabana - Tusker	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Mathare United - Tusker	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Tusker - Posta Rangers	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Kenya CB - Tusker	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
29.10.25	Tusker - Kariobangi Sharks	2:1
14.09.24	Kariobangi Sharks - Tusker	3:2
06.04.24	Kariobangi Sharks - Tusker	3:2
02.09.23	Tusker - Kariobangi Sharks	1:1
04.02.23	Tusker - Kariobangi Sharks	1:1
12.03.22	Tusker - Kariobangi Sharks	1:0
07.11.21	Kariobangi Sharks - Tusker	3:0

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