Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 27

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday


	AJEL de Rufisque		Guédiawaye

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.52	3.5
	2.35	2.44	3.45
	2.52	2.37	3.73	Watch
	2.4	2.45	3.3
	2.27	2.5	3.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.92)	2.46 ↓ (2.81)	3.56 ↓ (4.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AJEL de Rufisque
38%

Draw
36.7%

Guédiawaye
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

32.7%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

31.7%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AJEL de Rufisque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AJEL de Rufisque's form might have worsened.

Guédiawaye has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guédiawaye's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AJEL de Rufisque than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AJEL de Rufisque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guédiawaye than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guédiawaye, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

AJEL de Rufisque - Guédiawaye Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 13).

AJEL is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Guédiawaye has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

AJEL may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

AJEL will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, AJEL won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, AJEL won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	AJEL	30	15	9	6	27:19	8	54
13	Guediawaye	30	7	8	15	29:34	-5	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJEL de Rufisque
Senegal Ligue 1
03.05.26	AJEL de Rufisque - Stade de Mbour	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wally Daan - AJEL de Rufisque	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Dakar SC - AJEL de Rufisque	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	AJEL de Rufisque - Ouakam	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	HLM - AJEL de Rufisque	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTLWL
- Guédiawaye FC
Senegal Ligue 1
10.05.26	Guédiawaye - Ouakam	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	HLM - Guédiawaye	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Guédiawaye - Camberene	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Guédiawaye - Pikine	1:3 ✺
26.03.26	Sonacos - Guédiawaye	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Senegal Ligue 1
25.01.26	Guédiawaye - AJEL de Rufisque	0:1
04.05.25	AJEL de Rufisque - Guédiawaye	1:1

AJEL de Rufisque - Guédiawaye: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide