Match Info

Premier League - Round 16

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	APS Bomet		Mara Sugar

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.68	2.72
	2.81	2.72	2.71	Watch
	2.7	2.5	2.75
	2.7	2.96	2.68
	2.8	2.66	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.62)	2.7 ↓ (2.82)	2.7 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

APS Bomet
33%

Draw
33.5%

Mara Sugar
33.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.7%

32.2%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

33.2%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

APS Bomet has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Mara Sugar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for APS Bomet than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

APS Bomet - Mara Sugar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Musungu R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
83', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 11).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, APS Bomet won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, APS Bomet won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mara Sugar	3	1	2	0	4:3	1	5
15	APS Bomet	3	0	2	1	1:2	-1	2

Last Results with these Odds

Mara Sugar - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.14%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- APS Bomet FC
Kenyan Premier League
21.12.25	APS Bomet - Tusker	0:1 ✺
16.12.25	Kenya CB - APS Bomet	4:2 ✺
12.12.25	APS Bomet - Posta Rangers	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	APS Bomet - Bandari	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Sofapaka - APS Bomet	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLTWT
- Mara Sugar FC
Kenyan Premier League
22.12.25	Mara Sugar - Muranga Seal	1:3 ✺
17.12.25	Shabana - Mara Sugar	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Mara Sugar - Kariobangi Sharks	2:0 ✺
08.12.25	Mathare United - Mara Sugar	0:1 ✺
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Super League
13.07.22	APS Bomet - Mara Sugar	1:0

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